Activity in the Brazilian soybean market was low this Thursday (9). Prices showed some volatility, but were predominantly stable to lower.
According to Safras Consultoria, although the dollar showed a significant increase, the drop in Chicago ended up offsetting this trend in price movements.
Several disparities were observed between buying and selling intentions, which led producers to adopt a more cautious stance during the day.
See prices in Brazil
- Passo Fundo (RS): fell from R$126 to R$125
- Missions Region: dropped from R$125 to R$124
- Port of Rio Grande: decreased from R$137 to R$135
- Cascavel (PR): dropped from R$128 to R$127
- Port of Paranaguá (PR): went from R$136 to R$134
- Rondonópolis (MT): remained at R$ 118
- Dourados (MS): continued at R$ 119
- Rio Verde (GO): went from R$118 to R$117
Soy in Chicago
Soybean futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed Thursday with lower prices.
The drop was determined by the feeling that this Friday’s report (10) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) be bearish. The agents chose
for realizing the recently obtained profits.
The USDA is expected to indicate the United States harvest and ending stocks in 2024/25 above the previous season. These will be the first projections for the current season.
Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on American stocks of 432 million bushels in 2024/25. For 2023/24, the market is betting on a number of 341 million bushels. In April, the forecast was 340 million bushels.
For production, the market expects a number of 4.43 billion bushels for 2024/25. The USDA number for 2023/24 is 4.165 billion bushels.
In relation to the global supply and demand picture for soybeans, the market is betting on 2024/25 final stocks of 120 million tons. For 2023/24, the market expectation is for a number of 112.4 million, against 114.2 million estimated in April.
Brazilian harvest
For the Brazilian harvest in 2023/24, the bet is on cutting, going from the current 155 million to 152.6 million tons. Argentine production must be reduced from 50 million to 49.5
millions of tons.
On the market’s radar, there are still two points that supported prices this week: floods in Rio Grande do Sulwith damage to crops, and the general strike in Argentina, which is expected to paralyze the sector and harm exports.
Soybean futures contracts
Soybean grain contracts for delivery in July closed down 19.25 cents, or 1.56%, $12.08 1/2 per bushel. The August position had a quote of $12.10 1/4 per bushel, for a gain of 17.25 cents or 1.4%.
In by-products, the July bran position closed with a drop of US$ 5.60 or 1.47% at US$ 372.90 per ton. In oil, contracts expiring in July closed at 42.64 cents, down 1.15 cents or 2.62%.
Exchange
The commercial dollar ended the session up 1.03%, trading at R$5.1432 for sale and R$5.1412 for purchase. During the day, the North American currency fluctuated between a minimum of R$5.1364 and a maximum of R$5.1767.
