The dollar alternated between stability and a slight drop against the real this Friday, with investors taking profits after the jump in the US currency the day before, while markets continued to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the divisions within the board of directors of the Central Bank from Brazil.
At 10:00 am (Brasília time), the dollar in cash fell 0.05%, to 5.1405 reais on sale. On B3, the first-month dollar futures contract fell 0.01%, to 5.1475 reais.
“I think yesterday’s rise was very sharp, and a technical adjustment the next day is natural,” said Fernando Bergallo, director of operations at FB Capital.
The day before, the dollar in cash closed the day at 5.1432 reais on sale, up 1.02%, due to fears that the Central Bank may become more lenient in combating inflation from 2025 onwards, when The directors appointed by the Lula government will become the majority in the institution.
What fueled these fears was the division of votes at the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting on Wednesday, when the collegiate decided by 5 votes to 4 to cut the basic Selic rate by 25 basis points, to 10.50% per month. year.
All five directors who voted for a 25 basis point cut were appointed by the previous government, while the four directors who advocated a 50 basis point cut were appointed by the Lula administration.
As local investors continue to digest the outlook for the Central Bank, the external climate offered relief, Bergallo said, pointing to a recent cooling in US employment data.
Last week, job opening data outside the agricultural sector came in lower than expected, while, the day before, a reading showed an upward surprise in unemployment benefit claims.
“This once again gave the market momentum to believe in an interest rate cut there, now in the second half of the year,” said Bergallo.
Last week, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, where it has been since July. Operators, who at the end of last year predicted that interest rate cuts in the US could begin as early as March, have consecutively postponed their projections, which now point to September as the likely time for the first cut.
In general, the more the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the less the BC relaxes local monetary policy, the better for the real. This is because, the greater the interest differential between Brazil and the USA, the more interesting the domestic currency becomes for use in “carry trade” strategies, in which investors take out a loan in a country with low rates and invest this money in a more profitable market.
The dollar was on track to end the week up 1.40%, but in the month to date it has fallen almost 1%.
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