How Ukraine is leaving Russia almost without oil. Fuel exports reach “almost historic lows”

Ukraine has taken on the Russian oil industry as a legitimate target for attacks against Moscow. Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainian forces have hit more than 12 refineries in nine Russian regions – and the consequences are showing

Ukraine has been launching a wave of drone attacks against oil refineries on Russian territory, which is posing major problems for Moscow, which is now faced with fuel shortages to not only guarantee its war efforts, but also to maintain oil exports.

According to POLITICO, which cites official Kremlin figures, diesel prices have soared for Russian consumers, rising 10% last week. But it wasn’t just diesel that rose: the price of gasoline also reached its highest value in the last six months, increasing more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

This is the consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, which the Kiev army classifies as legitimate war targets. Also on Wednesday, two Rosneft refineries, located around 500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, were heavily damaged following attacks with Ukrainian drones. Since the beginning of the year, according to POLITICO, Ukrainian forces have already hit more than 12 refineries in nine Russian regions.

As a result, Russia, one of the largest oil exporters in the world, was forced to reduce fuel exports to “almost historic lows”, as described by POLITICO, which indicates that last week alone Moscow exported more than 712 thousand tons of diesel, in contrast to the 844 tons exported in the same period of 2023.

Philip Ingram, a former British intelligence officer, points out that this strategy is “a great way to relieve pressure from the front lines” in Ukraine, as well as having heavy consequences for the Russian economy, since, although most Western countries have stopped importing Russian oil, such as gasoline and diesel, the United Arab Emirates, along with several countries in South America and North Africa, continue to buy it, often for re-export.

Marina Shagina, an expert on the Russian economy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests to POLITICO that these “physical sanctions” committed by Ukraine on Russia “may accelerate real sanctions.”

“Kiev discovered that Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries accelerate the impact of Western sanctions,” he concludes.