Lack of weapons, trenches and “a failure”. General Syrskyi was chosen to change the course of the war, but will he be able to save Ukraine?

He is considered “a tough” and pragmatic leader, who received the difficult mission of stopping a Russian army that was preparing to go on the offensive. But he also received an army devastated by a failed counteroffensive and saw for months the United States divided in sending military support

The last few months have not been easy for Ukraine. Highly weakened by the lack of support from the United States of America and quite worn out by a counteroffensive that had little effect, the Ukrainian government decided to change the helm of its Armed Forces, choosing Oleksandr Syrskyi to succeed the popular general Valeri Zaluzhnyi. But the task has not been easy. Since taking office, he has lost control of several locations and has resorted to trying to contain the announced Russian offensive.

“Syrskyi received a very heavy inheritance. In addition to receiving a worn-out Armed Forces, with a mobilization program to be approved, he inherited a very bad situation, the result of bad decisions that have been taken. In this short space of time, it has been very realistic”, considers Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.

When Oleksandr Syrskyi reached the highest position in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there was little left to do in Avdiivka. The small industrial city north of Donetsk, which had resisted one of the most intense Russian offensives since the fall of Bakhmut since October 10, 2023, had seen Moscow soldiers break through its main line of defense two days earlier.

The Russians were using their new KAB1500 bombs with impunity, a device capable of gliding 60 kilometers until it accurately hits its target with more than 1500 kilos of explosives. Few fortifications are capable of resisting these explosions and the situation worsened every hour. Therefore, one of the first measures taken by the Ukrainian colonel-general was to move a Patriot anti-aircraft battery to the front line, which has a range of 160 kilometers.

The result was felt almost immediately. In 13 days, Ukraine destroyed 13 Russian fighter planes, including several Sukhoi Su-34s and an important reconnaissance plane, the Beriev A-50. But the general’s strategy carried risks and, shortly afterwards, two Patriot missile launchers were hit by Russia.

“When he was appointed, circumstances did not allow for any other solution: Syrskyi had to refer himself to the defense. There was no other option left for him. He had to be realistic and order his soldiers to be removed, preserving combat potential”, analyzes Isidro de Morais Pereira.

The deterioration in the terrain led the former Ukrainian infantry commander to order the withdrawal from Avdiivka, even though there were no defensive positions prepared to do so. But the legacy left by the popular general Valerii Zaluzhnyi did not leave the Russian-trained soldier much room for maneuver. One after another, several locations fell to Russian advances. “The situation has deteriorated significantly,” admitted the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who has no doubt that a Russian offensive is approaching.

The strategy outlined by Syrskyi, born and educated in Russia, was quite similar to that adopted by Moscow on the eve of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive: dig, dig and dig. Trenches, bunkers, tank obstacles, dragon’s teeth and extensive minefields have been placed all over the battlefront.

However, experts admit that Ukraine is too late in building these structures and that, if Russia attacks, these defenses risk not being as solid as the Russian ones. Furthermore, according to experts, Ukraine does not have secondary defensive lines capable enough to face the Russian attack.

“Ukraine is far behind in the effort to entrench. Ukraine doesn’t have good secondary defensive lines,” says Michael Kofman, a defense expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, think tank North American.

This effort is part of the Ukrainian plan to try to rebuild its army for a long-term war. According to the think tank North American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the funds recently approved by the North American Congress could come to Syrskyi’s aid in achieving this goal.

Unlike his predecessor, Syrskyi does not enjoy the political popularity of Valerii Zaluzhnyi. The colonel-general has a reputation as a “butcher” among some officers of the Ukrainian army, due to the way he defended the city of Bakhmut at great cost, in early 2023. At the same time, there are those who defend his pragmatism and the realism with which he faces the challenges.

Oleksandr Syrksyi was responsible for the defense of Kiev in the early days of the war, when the future of the capital seemed uncertain. Months later, he carried out one of the most competent maneuvers of the Ukrainian army, leading to the withdrawal of the Russian army from a large part of the Kharkiv region, in September 2022.

“Zaluzhnyi was charismatic, loved by the population and the army. Syrskyi is a career general. He graduated from the school of the former Soviet Union, he is tough, but he is a man who delivers results. Syrski is someone who doesn’t receive much sympathy on the front line. Many Ukrainian officers dislike Syrskyi’s command style. They accuse him of assigning the mission and not gathering the necessary means to achieve these objectives”, explains Major General Agostinho Costa.

But one of the colonel-general’s main promises upon taking office was a fairer rotation of soldiers. Oleksandr Syrskyi believes that several units spend too much time on the front line, while others spend too much time without fighting, leading to the demoralization of soldiers on the ground. The objective was to “maintain a balance between fulfilling combat tasks and restoring units by intensifying training,” argued Syrksyi.

Two months later, the situation remains very delayed. The new Ukrainian mobilization law was approved, but it does not guarantee the 500,000 soldiers initially requested by the Armed Forces. The general himself admitted that the final number must be much lower.

“The problem now is staffing. Ukraine will recruit, but a military unit cannot be prepared in three months. A soldier can be prepared in three months, a unit is something else. This war is taking a huge toll on Ukraine. Russia rotates its forces very frequently”, highlights Agostinho Costa.

The lack of soldiers even led to the worsening of the situation at the battlefront, near Ocheretyne, where the error in the surrender of a military unit allowed Russia to penetrate almost five kilometers into the Ukrainian defensive line. The maneuver is complex, particularly when it is carried out on the front line, but experts believe that it is happening at a time when the lack of soldiers is becoming increasingly intense.

“The fall of Ocheretyne is his main failure, but we cannot give in to the temptation to say that this man failed. Syrskyi’s life is not easy, he inherited an Armed Forces in a difficult situation. He demonstrated himself to be fair and pragmatic, capable of doing what had to be done. But we’ll have to wait, I believe he hasn’t given up on attacking. Russia may make new conquests, but at the cost of many lives”, insists the major general.