Study released this Wednesday had the participation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Atmospheric phenomena such as heavy snow or intense rain can increase the chances of earthquakes occurring, according to a study released this Wednesday in which the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) participated.
Scientists have discovered that, in addition to looking for the causes of earthquakes in the collision of tectonic plates or the movement of faults, it is also necessary to pay attention to climate as a “second order factor”.
This pioneering research has already monitored some earthquakes that occurred in recent years – in addition to other current tremors – in Japan, which may have been conditioned by previous meteorological phenomena.
“We see that snowfall and other surface environmental loads influence the state of subsurface stress, and that the timing of heavy rains is closely related,” said William Frank, co-author of the study and associate professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric Sciences and MIT Planetariums (EAPS).
The project also included former MIT research associate Qing-Yu Wang, now at the University of Grenoble Alpes, EAPS physician Xin Cui, Yang Lu of the University of Vienna, Takashi Hirose of Tohoku University, and Kazushige Obara, from the University of Tokyo.
The MIT team, together with Japanese partners, has been trying to detect patterns that explain the persistence of earthquakes in the Noto Peninsula (Japan) since the end of 2020, where, according to the study, multiple continuous earthquakes have occurred without an initial or triggering shock. Of course, as usual.
The researchers consulted the Japan Meteorological Agency’s earthquake record and monitoring points across the country over the past 11 years to get an idea of how fast a seismic wave traveled between these stations.
Thus, the researchers generated an evolutionary picture of the seismic velocity beneath the Noto Peninsula and observed that, since 2020, changes in wave speed appeared to be synchronized with the seasons.
“When it rains or snows, it adds weight, which increases the pressure, which allows the seismic waves to travel more slowly, and when all that weight is removed, through evaporation or runoff, suddenly the pressure drops and the waves seismic tests are faster”, said Frank.
In this way, scientists discovered that the succession of earthquakes suffered by the inhabitants of Noto can be explained in part by seasonal rains and, in particular, by heavy snowfall.
“We see that the moment when earthquakes occur coincides perfectly with the moments when intense snowfall occurs”, highlighted Frank, although he emphasizes that these are “second order factors” and that the main ‘trigger’ will always originate underground.
Researchers now suspect that this new link between earthquakes and climate may not be unique to Japan and may play a role in seismic activity in other parts of the world.
Furthermore, they predict that the influence of climate on earthquakes could be more pronounced with global warming because the world is in a “changing climate with more extreme precipitation”.
This will change “the way the weight acts on the Earth’s crust” and will certainly have an impact on earthquakes, they warned.
