Do you like chocolate? Cocoa prices continue to rise and may not have reached their peak yet – Society

The price of cocoa on international markets has soared 150% since the beginning of the year and reached US$10,000 per ton for the first time, but there are doubts that the peak has been reached, according to analysts consulted by Lusa.

The price of cocoa futures for delivery in May, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, has been rising since last year, with this raw material reaching new historical records on Tuesday, momentarily trading above 10,000 dollars per ton.

In international markets, the price of cocoa rose 60% over the last year, but since the beginning of the year, in less than three months, the price of cocoa has already increased by almost 150%, highlights senior economist at Banco Carregosa Paulo Rosa.

Driving this increase is, above all, the shortage of supply, which the economist points out is visible in the negative slope of the price curve of the various futures contracts, in which prices for immediate delivery, as well as for shorter terms, are higher than the prices of longer-term contracts (taking into account that the increase in demand for cocoa remains constant and predictable over the years).

Paulo Rosa highlights that the futures contract for delivery in December 2025 is quoted at 5,650 dollars, almost 45% below current prices for delivery in May.

Considering that the mark of 10,000 dollars per ton, for futures for delivery in May, could be a psychological barrier for investors, the spokesman for the brokerage XTB, Henrique Tomé, considers that one should not “exclude the possibility that the prices of cocoa begin to correct slightly”.

However, he highlights that “the buying force has been very strong over recent times” and that, in recent months, “the moments when the price appeared to show signs of slowing down ended up being marked by strong upward movements in cocoa “.

“Therefore, it is still difficult to move forward if prices have already reached their peak, especially because problems related to supply could worsen and this should be reflected in the price of raw materials”, he said, highlighting that “these increases could not only be related to fundamentals, but are also associated with speculative fund activity.”

Paula Rosa warns that chocolate producers are gradually beginning to reflect the increase in this agricultural raw material in their products and, consequently, “end customers will see more expensive prices for chocolate and all sweets that use cocoa in their production”.

The scarcity of this raw material was already felt last year, but the reduction in supply, especially that coming from West Africa, the main producing region (which is expected to record the third consecutive annual deficit), is expected to be even greater this year, due to lower-than-expected harvests, a consequence of increasing problems caused by “swollen shoot disease”, heavy rains and dry heat affecting crops.

“The prospects for the next harvests are not encouraging, with a growing shortage of cocoa likely, a fact that could boost prices a little more”, emphasizes Paulo Rosa, pointing to a fourth consecutive deficit in the next harvests.

Among the world’s main producers are Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, with global market shares of 43% and 20%, respectively.

“The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) anticipates that the global cocoa deficit in 2023/24 could increase to 374 thousand metric tons, from the negative balance of 74 thousand metric tons in 2022/23”, indicates the senior economist at Banco Carregosa.

Paulo Rosa further points out that ICCO also estimates that global cocoa production in 2023/24 will fall 11% year-on-year to 4.45 million metric tons, and global cocoa grinding will fall by almost 5%, which will push the ratio stocks/crust from 2023/24 to the lowest level in more than 40 years.

Henrique Tomé highlights that, although other producers, such as Brazil or Ecuador, want to increase their production, it will take “a few years before the newly planted cocoa trees bear fruit”.

“Furthermore, new environmental rules, which are about to be approved in the European Union, a major cocoa importer, are expected to further limit supply. Cocoa reserves have been decreasing since the second half of 2023, but not nearly enough the scale of the change in future prices”, says the XTB spokesperson.