Will it be “thousand waters”? Will it be cold or hot? Here’s Meteored’s latest forecast

March 2024 saw periods of elevated temperatures and substantially above average, Saharan dust intrusions, cold drops which brought showers, hail and thunder, maritime polar air masses associated with barometric depressions, with one of them causing the biggest snowfall in the last 6 years in mainland PortugalIt is several Atlantic fronts and depressions that brought abundant rain.

In fact, one of the most intense and significant of the aforementioned depressions occurred in the first month of climatological spring – Nelsonappointed by AEMET and the 14th major depression of the 2023/2024 season of the Meteorological Services of the countries of Southwest Europe – coincided precisely with the second half of Holy Week, on the days of Wednesday 27th and Thursday 28th March, essentially.

Final stretch of Holy Week in Portugal will feature a lot of rain, low temperatures and possible snowfall: find out where

It should also be noted that the last week of March coincided precisely with Easter Week and completely converged with our weather forecastreleased about two weeks earlier, which reveals the remarkable hit rate of the Meteored reference model and attests to the quality of our meteorologists and climate experts.

In fact, the cold, unstable and very rainy weather had already been anticipated by us in the forecast for Holy Week. In addition, strong wind, sea agitation and snow have occasionally taken on meteorological protagonism. Will April follow the trend and be true to its most famous proverb? Find out with us if April will be “a thousand waters” in 2024.

What does Climatology tell us about the month of April?

In Portugal, the month of April is popularly known as “April, thousand waters”that is, because it is a period of time in which people have the perception that it rains a lot. In reality, this popular perception is not surprising since April is, according to the observed history of the climatological reference normal (1981-2010), the sixth wettest month on the continentpresenting a average accumulated precipitation (77.9 mm) of the twelve months of the year.

Furthermore, it reveals an average accumulated rainfall higher than that of March (62.2 mm) and is only slightly surpassed by the month of February (78.7 mm). Although, This does not prevent the existence of great contrasts between the different regions of our geography.

In April, the main meteorological stations in the Minho and Douro Litoral (Viana do Castelo, Braga and Porto) have an average accumulated rainfall of more than 100 mmand in the remaining district capitals of the Northern Region, this value varies between 60 and 80 mm. In the Central Region only one of the district capitals usually exceeds 100 mm in April (Viseu).

In the remaining northernmost district capitals of the Center, the average accumulated precipitation around 80/90 mm in the fourth month of the year, except in White Castle (65mm). As for the main meteorological stations in Metropolitan Area of ​​Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve the average total rainfall in April varies between 39 mm (Faro) and 78 mm (Portalegre).

Weather forecasts have improved over the years and are increasingly accurate

With days getting longer due to the gradual increase in minutes of sunlight, the average temperature in April is higher than in March, presenting a value of 13.6ºC. In the interior North and Center the average maximum temperature varies between 13ºC (Guard) and 17ºC (Vila Real), on the North Coast between 18 It is 19ºCin most of the district capitals of the Center between 18ºC It is 20ºC and in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, Lezíria do Tejo, Baixo Alentejo and Faro round the 20ºC.

What to expect from precipitation in April?

The maps of our reference model (ECMWF) insist on a continuation of the abundant rain pattern for the first week of April 2024right after Easter, given that there are positive precipitation anomalies in much of the geography of mainland Portugal (North, Center and Metropolitan Area of ​​Lisbon), with the most pronounced will take place in the regions west of the Condensation Barrier.

At the Alentejo and Algarve no significant deviations are observed in relation to the average, meaning that rainfall levels should be around the climatological reference average.

For the second week of the month (April 8-15) there is a drier than usual weather pattern, especially south of the Central Cordillera, given that in the North there are mostly spots painted in white on the map (without evidence of statistically significant anomalies). This does not mean that it will never rain, as it may occur at certain times on certain days, it just means that it will rain less than is normal for this time of year.

The weather conditions generally marked by the absence of precipitation may be due to the scenario projected by the long-term probability regime of the ECMWF: the influence of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which normally results in a strong anticyclone in the Azores near our countrythus preventing the arrival of Atlantic depressions.

If we look at the second half of April, the high uncertainty in the forecast does not allowright now, make a safe forecastbut it offers a first approximation of what might happen and, in fact, it appears that the dry weather pattern, with lower than normal precipitation levels, may continue from the second to the third week of April (15-22) and perhaps even the fourth week (22 to 29).

Is a warmer than normal April ahead?

The European model suggests that temperatures will remain above average throughout the month of April from north to south of mainland Portugal.

For now, the maps are betting on a first fortnight hotter than the secondgiven that for the period from 1 to 15 April there are the most pronounced positive thermal anomalies in terms of geographical area covered. During this period, the entire geography of the Continent will record between 1 and 3 ºC above average.

For the second half of the month the possibility of the heat remaining is not so obviousbut early trends from ECMWF suggest the continuity of this scenario.

What could April 2024 be like in the Azores and Madeira Archipelagos?

In April, the Azores are also expected to register temperatures above average (almost always 1 ºC positive thermal anomaly), except in the first week of April in the Eastern Group (up to 3 ºC above normal). As for precipitation, it should manifest itself with levels substantially higher than normal in the first weekwhich may be in line with normal values ​​or even be lower than the average in the remaining weeks.

Tomorrow the Nelson Depression will bring an almost stationary front that will leave immense millimeters of rain in these regions

Concerning Wood there is a tendency towards hot weather throughout the month of April and, like the Continent, the most pronounced positive thermal anomalies may also occur in the first fortnight (up to 3 ºC above normal).

For the second fortnight, with all the uncertainty that a weather forecast for such a long period entails, the possibility of temperatures remaining above average is expected, but with milder positive thermal anomalies (up to 1 ºC).