The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is more optimistic for Portugal than it was at the end of last year, predicting a rise in GDP to 1.6% in 2024, 0.4 percentage points more than the forecast for November.
In the Economic Outlook report published this Thursday, OECD economists maintain their economic growth projection of 2%, above the Government’s own projection – 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2025, according to the Stability Program presented last month.
Even above the OECD is the IMF, which forecasts growth of 1.7% this year, and even more optimistic is the Bank of Portugal, which forecasts 2% economic growth this year and 2.3% in 2025.
The OECD foresees a “less restrictive budgetary policy” with the Government of Luís Montenegro, which anticipates that the increase in public investment, the reduction in taxes and the increase in social benefits will lead to greater growth in the Portuguese economy.
In November 2023, in the last report, economists had predicted growth of 1.2% this year and 2% next.
The OECD predicts that “modest global growth and high uncertainty are delaying exports and investment”, but that “stable energy prices” and job demand will lead to inflation stabilizing at 2.4% in 2024 and 2% in 2025.
“Fiscal policy will become less restrictive. The implementation of the PRR, cuts in personal income taxes and social benefits will support activity and compensate for the progressive elimination of support measures to mitigate the inflationary shock in 2024”, concludes the OECD.
Tags: Optimistic OECD revises Portugals growth
