A few days ago, people wrote GCN websitespecialized in cycling, that perhaps the sport has never seen a “grand tour” in this century with a favorite as obvious and as distant from all the others as the Tour of Italy 2024, which will run on the road from this Saturday until the 26th. This idea could well summarize the mentality with which fans, journalists, athletes and teams head into this race.
And it is a tremendous irony that any organizer of a race of this type wants the best cyclists in the world, but that the Giro having reached that goal, finally achieving the prestige of Tadej Pogacar, could end up triggering one of the most boring races in recent years. years. It would be a case of saying: be careful what you wish for.
And also for the Slovenian this could be good advice. Winning the Tour de France again is difficult – he knows it well – and it will become even more difficult after racing the Giro, especially if Pogacar behaves the way he likes, which is attacking everything on the ground. Dear Slovenian, be careful what you wish for.
Anyone capable?
In this race, those who can say they are capable of competing with Pogacar in current cycling will watch from the couch: some due to physical problems, others due to the decision not to run this race, to focus on the Tour – and others even because of both things together.
The closest thing to a rival is Geraint Thomas, who could even be surpassed by his colleague Thymen Arensman. With some sympathy, we can talk about Cian Uijtdebroeks and Dani Martínez, whose form has seen better days, or Ben O’Connor and Romain Bardet, in good form in 2024. But talking about these already borders on broad generosity.
Pogacar’s favoritism is not only due to the inferior level of his opponents, but also to the Slovenian’s superlative level at the start of the season. Until now, he has already had seven triumphs – including classics such as Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour of Catalonia.
To complete the scenario, there are three more relevant data points: one organizational, one collective and one individual. The individual is what tells us that no one has won the Giro and Tour in the same year since 1998, when Marco Pantani took his bald head up the mountains. And Pogacar will certainly not disdain an honor of this caliber. The collective factor is what tells us that Emirates has a team assembled by Pogacar, with several riders he trusts.
Finally, the organizational detail tells us that this Giro seemed designed to suit Pogacar: it has a mountain that is more “friendly” to the Slovenian than the one in recent years (less difficult in distance, but more explosive), it has two time trials and There is also a Strade Bianche style stage, a race that Pogacar won a few weeks ago. And the Slovenian is, by far, the “voltar” who best behaves in these types of stages.
Balance in sprints
As a sickle, it is important to remember that if heat is the great enemy of Pogacar – and this is yet to be proven – then the afternoons of torture in France, which cost him two Tours de France, will not be a problem in Italy’s mild spring.
An interesting detail will be to see if Pogacar gets the pink jersey on the first day, which will have some ups and downs, or, in the worst case, on the second, even tougher day. This will be a bold prediction, but seeing the Slovenian in pink from the first to the last day of the Giro is not a total utopia.
In any case, the Giro is strong at tearing down favorites – literally and metaphorically. And, as sad as it may be for fans hungry for spectacle, possible bad luck seems to be the Slovenian’s main opponents.
In this 100% Giro on Italian soil there will still be a good fight in the sprintsas names like Tim Merlier, Fabio Jakobsen, Olav Kooij, Jonathan Milan, Caleb Ewan and Kaden Groves will be there.
For the show there are also actors for all tastes. The movements of cyclists like Biniam Girmay, Christophe Laporte, Julien Alaphilippe, Michael Woods or Nairo Quintana can be fun to follow.
The group of Portuguese is reduced to Rui Oliveira, at Emirates. Collectively, the Portuguese should celebrate at the end, with his colleague Pogacar, and, on an individual level, he could, on days of sprints more chaotic, being left with the “leftovers” as the sprinter Molano’s pitcher. It is, however, an unlikely scenario.
