Dollar closes with a rise, following the appreciation of the currency abroad, but expectations of fewer Selic cuts limit the currency’s rise

The dollar in cash ended slightly higher against the real, following the trend of appreciation of the American currency abroad, especially against European currencies.

The upward bias out there was given by the monetary policy decisions of the Swiss central bank, which surprised by announcing a 25 bp cut in interest rates, and the BoE, which maintained interest rates, but registered an important change of stance among its largest members. ‘hawkish’, who this time voted to maintain the rate, and not to increase it, which suggests that cuts there could start in June.

Here, the appreciation of the dollar was limited by the change in the Copom’s ‘forward guidance’, which left the monetary policy steps open in June, leading the market to believe that the Selic could end the year at a higher level than was expected. The prospect that the basic interest rate will fall less here favors the ‘carry trade’ and contributes to a smaller outflow of foreign capital from fixed income.

The BC reported today that the total foreign exchange flow last week (11 to 15/3) was negative at US$ 297 million, resulting from an outflow of US$ 1.992 billion through the financial account and an inflow of US$ 1.695 billion through the commercial account.

The spot dollar closed up 0.11%, at R$4.9798, after fluctuating between R$4.9509 and R$4.9858. At 5:05 pm, the dollar futures for April rose 0.16%, to R$4.9800.

Abroad, the DXY index rose 0.60%, to 104,036 points. The euro fell 0.59% to US$1.0858. The pound lost 1.05% to US$1.2651. And the Swiss franc fell 1.28%, to US$ 1.1135.

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