Wisconsin vs. James Madison expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

Wisconsin vs. James Madison expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game
Wisconsin vs. James Madison expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game
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If you’re looking for trendy upset picks, James Madison has been one this week. Wisconsin is still a solid favorite in this first-round NCAA Tournament game set for Friday night.

The Dukes are taking on a Badgers team that has been up and down this season, but is coming off a run to the final of the Big Ten tournament. This is one of the infamous 5-12 matchups though. Upsets are not rare in these. Will this be another?

Wisconsin

Strengths: Unlike previous iterations of this team, the Badgers can play at variable paces, performing undisturbed regardless of opponent speed preference — especially given their above-average offense. Wisconsin ranks in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, tallying nearly 1.2 points per possession. Forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are a tremendous one-two punch whether crashing the boards or converting high-percentage buckets. The guard squad brings upside in Max Klesmit’s marksmanship from 3, Chucky Hepburn’s thievery and AJ Storr’s all-around scoring ability.

Weaknesses: To say Wisconsin is lazy on defense is an understatement. Over the last month of the regular season, the Badgers ranked No. 299 in effective field-goal percentage defense, giving up a hideous 51.6 percent from two and 39.8 percent from three. Yikes. Also, if whistles against them rack up, they don’t have much depth to lean on. Wisconsin ranks in the bottom third in bench minutes played.

Outlook: Wisconsin lost eight of its final 11 regular-season games. The Badgers’ clawless defense, absence of depth and flat finish made them an early-round knockout candidate. …or so we thought. Their renaissance in the Big Ten Tournament — where they lost to Illinois in the final — showcased deep-run appeal when all the cylinders fire. To that end, they’re incredibly hard to forecast.

—Rob Dauster

James Madison

Strengths: Three players averaged double digits, led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who scored a conference-high 17.4 points per game. They also have the Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in TJ Bickerstaff (Bernie’s grandson and JB’s nephew), who averaged 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a game. And there is a lot of green on their Bart Torvik profile. The Dukes are shooting 36.5 percent from behind the arc. They are deep and they pose a threat from anywhere on the floor.

Weaknesses: This season JMU played like Superman…and Appalachian State was the big block of kryptonite. The Mountaineers beat the Dukes twice. Fortunately for JMU, App State was defeated before a potential third meeting in the conference tournament — and that opened up a relatively easy path to the automatic bid for the Dukes. It’s still a red flag on JMU’s summary because the NCAA Tournament is filled with teams better than App State, even if the Dukes have a win at Michigan State on their summary.

Outlook: Get ready for a high-scoring affair in the first round. Can JMU stop any of the upper echelon teams? The Dukes know how to win, but aren’t tested against top teams. They’re a dangerous underdog.

—Gene Clemons


What: South Region, First Round

Typeoff time: 9:40 pm ET Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Brooklyn

Wisconsin vs. James Madison odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Wisconsin by 3, total 147

See Austin Mock’s best futures bets

Players to watch

Wisconsin

  • AJ Storr, sophomore guard, second-team All-Big Ten
  • Chucky Hepburn, junior guard, All-Big Ten defensive team

James Madison

  • Terrence Edwards Jr., junior guard/forward, Sun Belt Player of the Year, first-team All-Sun Belt
  • TJ Bickerstaff, graduate forward, second-team All-Sun Belt

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of AJ Storr: David Berding / Getty Images)


The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Wisconsin James Madison expert picks Spread odds projections NCAA Tournament firstround game

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