Soybean prices fall again as the market pays attention to planting in the USA | Quotes

Soybeans fell again on the Chicago stock exchange after surpassing the US$ 12 per bushel mark in the last session. Given the feeling that the US will increase the area planted with the oilseed, the paper that matures in May fell 0.85% this Tuesday (26/3), with a price of US$ 11.99 per bushel.

Market agents are waiting for data on planting intentions in the USA in 2024/25, which will be released by the American Department of Agriculture (USDA) next Thursday (28). And they are optimistic about the projections. Analysts consulted by “The Wall Street Journal” predict that the USDA will bring an area of ​​34.93 million hectares to soybeans in the country. The number, if confirmed, would be above the 35.41 million projected by the USDA in February.

Ronaldo Fernandes, an analyst at Royal Rural, says that the bets exceed official estimates because investors began to disbelieve the official figures from the agricultural department, especially after the agency pointed to production of around 155 million tons of soybeans for Brazil this season , while a large part of the market projects a harvest of between 145 million and 150 million tons.

“We already know that there will be an increase in soybean area in the USA, not only because of the price issue, but also because of the producer’s need to rotate crops. He knows that if he plants corn, he will not have a yield”, highlights Fernandes.

He believes that USDA data will have little impact on the direction of prices in Chicago, especially on the upward side.

“Even if the USDA confirms analysts’ bets on the size of the planted area or even slightly increases its forecasts, these are numbers that are within market analysis. Soybeans now only lose US$12 if this area indication exceeds 35 million hectares, which I think is unlikely”.

Corn

Corn also closed the session falling on the American stock exchange. Contracts for delivery in May fell 1.20%, to US$ 4.3250 a bushel.

This trend of lower cereal prices should prevail, in Ronaldo Fernandes’ assessment, even with the indication that the USA will reduce the planted area next season.

The average bet by market analysts is for the sowing of 37.24 million hectares, well above the 36.83 million hectares predicted by the American Department of Agriculture last month.

“Analysts’ projections do justice to the behavior of American producers, who like to plant corn, as they will receive a return from the demand for local ethanol, whose premium is currently better than for those who export.” Fernandes points out. In the USA, the main raw material for ethanol is cereal, and the government has encouraged the use of biofuel, adds the Royal Rural analyst.

According to him, corn prices in Chicago should hover around US$4.30 per bushel, but without the strength to exceed US$5, as American supply was at a record high this season, and consumption in other segments, like animal feed, it is weak.

Wheat prices fell in Chicago as investors pocketed profits after recent highs. Lots for delivery in May ended the session quoted at US$5.4350 per bushel, a drop of 2.07%.

In addition to a comfortable supply in the short term and retracted demand, TF Consultoria Agroeconomic said that projections for US wheat stocks put even more downward pressure on the market.

Data on American wheat stocks for this first quarter, which will be released by the USDA next Thursday, should bring a volume of 28.66 million tons, according to the average bet of market analysts. The number would be above the 25.61 million tons observed at the same time of the year. For TF Agroeconomic analysts, this should be a bearish factor for prices, because stocks are 3.05 million tons higher than at the same time of the year. last year.