The dollar closed higher this Tuesday (26), with investors reflecting new inflation data and the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, both released this morning.
The Broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), considered the preview of official inflation for the month, rose 0.36% in March, reported the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), above market projections.
Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, ended in decline, after spending much of the trading session oscillating between highs and lows.
See below for a summary of the markets.
At the end of the session, the dollar advanced 0.19%, quoted at R$4.9823. At its maximum, it reached R$4.9939. See more quotes.
As a result, he accumulated:
- drop of 0.32% in the week;
- gain of 0.20% in the month;
- increase of 2.67% in the year.
The previous day, the North American currency fell 0.51%, quoted at R$4.9729.
Ibovespa ended down 0.05%, at 126,863 points.
As a result, he accumulated setbacks from:
- 0.13% in the week;
- 1.67% in the month;
- 5.46% in the year.
The day before, the index fell 0.08%, to 126,931 points.
Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall
What’s moving the markets?
The session began with the release of important data in Brazil. Among the highlights of the day was the preview of March inflation, measured by the IPCA-15, which came in above what analysts expected.
The indicator rose 0.36% in the month, against expectations of 0.32%. The increase was once again driven by food, with the Food and Beverages group having registered an increase of 0.91% — an impact of 0.19 percentage points on the general index.
Even with the increase, the IPCA-15 still decelerated by 0.42 pp compared to February, when it registered an increase of 0.78%. In March 2023, the IPCA-15 was 0.69%. In 12 months, the IPCA-15 accumulated 4.14%.
For Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura Investimentos, the result shows that the IPCA-15 “not only came in above (than expected), but the opening also remains bad”,
“In the annualized three-month average, underlying services accelerated to 5.8%; in industrial, it practically dropped to zero and, in food, the indicator accelerated to 5.4%”, explains the economist.
This perspective also helps to explain another important announcement of the day: the Copom minutes. The Central Bank (BC) signaled that it should be more thoughtful with the next cuts in the Selic rate, currently at 10.75% per year, due to the uncertainties surrounding the inflation scenario.
“Some members further argued that, if prospective uncertainty remains high in the future, a slower pace of monetary easing (interest rate cuts) may prove appropriate, for any terminal rate that is desired to be achieved,” the institution said.
The Copom promoted six consecutive cuts of 0.5 percentage points in interest rates. As a result, the Selic rate fell from 13.75% per year in June last year to 10.75% per year at last week’s meeting.
In addition, the BC also released another edition of the Focus Bulletin — a report that brings together the projections of financial market economists for the country’s main economic indicators.
In this edition, experts reduced projections for 2024 inflation from 3.79% to 3.75%, while expectations for 202 fall from 3.52% to 3.51%.
For the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024, the growth estimate rose from 1.80% to 1.85%. It was the indicator’s sixth consecutive increase. For 2025, the financial market’s forecast for an increase in GDP remained stable at 2%.
In the news, corporate balance sheets were also on the radar.
Tags: Dollar closes higher preview higherthanexpected inflation Copom minutes Ibovespa falls Economy
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