Published 03/28/2024 10:49
The dollar operates higher this Thursday morning, the 28th, following the appreciation of Treasury yields, awaiting US PCE inflation data for February, on Friday, in addition to a speech by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
In terms of foreign exchange, the pricing of the dollar also has a technical component amid the formation of the latest Ptax rate for March and the first quarter, brought forward to today due to the Good Friday holiday in Brazil, the United States and Europe.
At the end of Wednesday, the director of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller, stated that he is not ready nor has any urgency to start cutting interest rates, and that he wants to see at least two more months of data to assess whether the time has come. .
This Thursday, data from the United States showed that, in the third reading, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter – a slightly stronger pace than expected. , 3.3%. Furthermore, the number of unemployment benefit claims fell slightly by 2,000 in the week ending March 23, to 210,000. The forecast was 215 thousand requests.
Among commodities, the signals are mixed. Oil advanced around 1.5% at around 9:30 am, while iron ore fell 0.85% in Dalian, China, extending losses accumulated in three consecutive sessions to 9.96%.
At the opening of business, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that the unemployment rate in Brazil was 7.8% in the quarter ended in February, according to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad To be continued). The result was identical to the median of analysts’ expectations.
In the same period of 2023, the unemployment rate measured by Pnad Contínua was 8.6%. In the quarter ending in January 2024, the unemployment rate was 7.6%. The average real income of workers totaled R$3,110 in the quarter ended in February, an annual increase of 4.3%, and the usual real income paid to employed people totaled R$307.3 billion in the quarter up to February, an annual increase of 6 .7%.
Earlier, the Central Bank reported, in the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI), that the forecast for the IPCA – the official inflation index – for March is an increase of 0.24%. The projection for April is an increase of 0.35% and, for May, an increase of 0.27%. The estimate for June is an increase of 0.15%.
According to the BC, the maintenance of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (Copom) projections for the IPCA – official inflation index – for 2024 and 2025 occurred because the upward surprises in the latest readings of the indicator were offset by lower projections for the short term. The price of oil also contributed to the rise, according to the BC. The BC’s official estimates were maintained at 3.5% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025, both above the center of the target of 3.0%.
In relation to recent readings, the BC stated that there was a surprise increase of 0.54 percentage points in the IPCA in the quarter ended in February, which was mainly due to administered prices and food at home. In those monitored, the highlight was gasoline, while the foods that rose more than expected were fresh foods, rice and beans and milk and dairy products.
As for services, the monetary authority highlighted that the variation was close to expected, but with relevant differences in composition. There was an upward surprise in the underlying component, a source of concern for the BC regarding monetary policy. According to the municipality, the surprise was only partially explained by the stronger variation in the banking services sub-item.
At 9:35 am, the spot dollar rose 0.29%, to R$4.9936. The dollar for May gained 0.14%, at R$5.0095.
