Foreign Exchange Market Trends and Projections

On the morning of this Thursday, the 28th, the dollar rose, following the trend of appreciation in Treasury yields and in anticipation of the American PCE inflation data for February, to be released on Friday, together with the speech by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

In addition to external factors, the dollar exchange rate is also influenced by technical issues, with the formation of the last Ptax rate for March and the first quarter, brought forward to today due to the Good Friday holiday in Brazil, the United States and Europe.

On Wednesday, Christopher Waller, director of the Federal Reserve (Fed), declared that he is not immediately inclined to initiate interest rate cuts and prefers to observe at least two more months of data before making a decision.

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Today, data from the United States showed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, slightly above expectations. Additionally, the number of unemployment benefit claims fell slightly by 2,000 in the week ending March 23, to 210,000, versus a forecast of 215,000 claims.

In the commodities scenario, there is a mix of signals, with oil registering an increase of around 1.5%, while iron ore fell 0.85% in Dalian, China, extending losses accumulated in three consecutive sessions to 9 .96%.

In Brazil, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that the unemployment rate was 7.8% in the quarter ended in February, in line with analysts’ expectations. Furthermore, the worker’s average real income and the usual real income paid to employed people registered annual increases of 4.3% and 6.7%, respectively.

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The Central Bank also presented the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI), projecting an increase of 0.24% in the IPCA for March. Estimates for the following months are 0.35% for April, 0.27% for May and 0.15% for June. Projections for 2024 and 2025 were maintained at 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively, due to a balance between recent bullish surprises and lower projections for the short term.

The spot dollar shows an increase of 0.29%, being quoted at R$4.9936, while the dollar for May registers an increase of 0.14%, being traded at R$5.0095, at 9:35 am.