Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research) stated this Thursday (28) that, despite the sharper rise in food inflation, the economy’s disinflation process “has been consolidating”.
The institute’s updated projections for inflation in 2024 maintained forecasts of 4% for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) and 3.8% for the INPC (National Consumer Price Index) in 2024.
In February, inflation accumulated over 12 months, measured by the IPCA, fell for the fifth consecutive month, reaching a rate of 4.5%. The rate is 1.1 percentage points below that recorded in February last year. According to Ipea, the result is within the tolerance range of the 3% target set for 2024.
In the 12-month period, the price variation rate fell from 10.2% in September to 8.6% in February. Also in the 12 months up to February, industrial goods recorded an inflationary increase of 0.9%, with emphasis on the 0.7% deflation of durable consumer goods. In the case of free services, the increase in 12 months was 5.3%, the lowest recorded in the last two years.
In the case of the IPCA, while the projection for food inflation increased from 3.9% to 4.1%, the estimate for free services fell from 5% to 4.8%. Estimates for other segments were maintained at 4.4% for administered prices and 2.1% for industrial goods.
At INPC, while the food inflation forecast jumped from 4.1% to 4.4% in 2024, the projected increase for free services fell from 4.7% to 4.6%. Projections for industrial goods remained at 1.9%, respectively.
The institute also states that, despite the subgroups showing more favorable recent performances, the main contribution to disinflation came from durable consumer goods, with deflation of 0.7%, in the twelve months up to February.
The data reveals that, in the last twelve months, the drop in durable goods reflects the 2.9% decline in the prices of electronics. According to Ipea, the interest rate and the high level of household debt have been inhibiting a more pronounced recovery in demand in this sector, preventing price adjustments.
