The stock market closed on a high today, although the gain is insufficient to prevent the first quarter of 2024 from closing with significant losses after 134 thousand points on the last day of December, a record nominal level.
Uncertainties regarding the start and extent of the interest rate cutting cycle in the United States pushed emerging market risk assets downward throughout the first quarter of the year.
Thus, at the close of this Thursday (28), the Ibovespa closed up 0.33%, at 128,106.10 points, increasing the gains from the previous session. Even so, the index accumulates a drop of 4.53% in the year. In the month, the performance is also negative: -0.71%.
Dolar today
At the same time, the dollar rose 0.73% in the session, to R$5.0154. In March, gains were almost 1%. The dollar registers an annual increase of 3% against the real, in line with global gains.
The DXY, which measures the dollar’s performance against other major currencies, advanced 0.19% in the session, to 104.54 points. For the year, the appreciation is 3.17%.
| Index | Variation of the day | Month variation | Year variation |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | +0.33% | -0.71% | -4.53% |
| IDIV | +0.21% | -1.20% | -3.81% |
| IFIX | +0.38% | +1.43% | +2.92% |
| BDRX | +0.65% | +4.04% | +15.88% |
Stocks on the rise
- Americanas (AMER3) +18.18%
- Comgas (CGAS5) +16.53%
- Multilaser (MLAS3) +15.02%
- Wiz (WIZC3) +13.91%
- Marfrig (MRFG3) +12.80%
Stocks down
- Dasa (DASA3) -13.17%
- Oncoclinics (ONCO3) -12.71%
- João Fortes (JFEN3) -10.78%
- Blue (BLUE4) -7.65%
- Viveo (VVEO3) -4.65%
The rankings include shares with a volume above R$1 million on the day, whether or not they make up the Ibovespa. The prices were determined between 5:07 pm and 5:11 pm.
World Stock Exchanges: New York
The New York stock exchanges closed without a single direction this Thursday, with limited variations, held back by expectations with new inflation data and the speech by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank), Jerome Powell, on Friday. Holy Fair, when global markets will be closed.
Even with caution, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones renewed their historic closing highs. In the session, investors assimilated comments from Fed Director Christopher Waller that were more hawkish than anticipated and a strong new reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023. The most heavily weighted stock on the Nasdaq Composite, Apple gave in after the downgrade recommendations and reports of delays in product launches.
The Dow Jones index closed with a gain of 0.12%, at 39,807.37 points, the S&P 500 advanced 0.11%, to 5,254.35 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.12%, to 16,379.46 points. The S&P 500 accumulated a gain of 10.16% in the first quarter, the best performance for the first three months of a year since the first quarter of 2019. The Dow Jones had a quarterly gain of 5.62% and the Nasdaq, of 9. 11%. In the month, the Dow Jones gained 2.08%, the S&P 500, 3.10% and the Nasdaq, 1.79%.
Europe
The main European stock exchanges closed with gains, albeit limited, this Thursday, the 28th, after accumulating an increase in the quarter in the face of signs of a slowdown in inflation and growing expectations that monetary relief is on the way in the region. The trading session was the last before the long Easter holiday.
The DAX, Frankfurt’s main benchmark index, continued to rise to new historic highs, without investors being shaken by the release of the indicator that showed a drop in retail sales in Germany. Thus, the German benchmark index rose 0.08%, reaching an unprecedented 18,492.49 points at closing.
In London, the FTSE 100 index closed with a change of 0.26%, at 7,952.62 points, returning to 8,000 points. In the quarter, the index rose 2.84%.
The CAC 40, in Paris, changed by 0.01%, at 8,205.81 points, a record level. In the first three months of the year, the index increased 8.78%.
In Madrid, the Ibex 35 fell 0.33%, to 11,074.60 points. The FTSE MIB fell 0.03%, to 34,750.35 points. The PSI 20, in Lisbon, gained 0.06%, at 6,280.50 points.
Inflation and economic growth in focus
Released by the Central Bank this Thursday morning, the RTI (Quarterly Inflation Report) showed adjustments in some indicators. In this sense, the prices of underlying services, which were already attracting investors’ attention, were revised upwards.
Even so, the text indicates a lower chance of exceeding the inflation target.
On the other hand, the Central Bank also revised the GDP, now expecting to close 2024 with an increase of 1.9%, but heading towards even higher numbers, according to Paulo Gala, chief economist at Master bank.
“After this data from January and February, growth is above 2%, with emphasis on very strong data from services and retail and, yesterday, Caged also came in very strong, with job creation in February well above expectations, one of the best performances of the last ten years”, highlights the economist.
However, data from the Continuous PNAD (National Household Sample Survey), released this Thursday (28) by IBGE, show that the unemployment rate in Brazil reached 7.8% in the quarter ending in February 2024. This result represents an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the quarter ending in November 2023.
The general picture, according to Gala, is of a strong economy for the remainder of the year, but with reservations regarding the behavior of inflation, which could change the fate of interest rates in the country.
“O forward guidance already changed. The Selic will drop to 10.25% at the May meeting and, after that, there is no way to know what will happen (with interest rates)”, he warns.
Exterior also moved the stock exchange today
In the United States, the short vertices of future interest rates are in the spotlight as they registered a sharp increase following comments from Christopher Waller, from the Fed, suggesting a possible postponement or reduction in the number of interest rate cuts.
He said he thought it was appropriate to reduce the total number of rate cuts or postpone them into the future in response to recent data.
“Still, stock markets are poised to close with impressive gains for the quarter. The MSCI global equity index is poised to record an increase of more than 7% this quarter, driven by stock market rallies and the growing adoption of artificial intelligence technology,” Guide highlights in a report.
The stock market today was also impacted by unemployment insurance claims data in the United States.
The number of unemployment benefit claims in the United States fell slightly by 2,000 in the week ending March 23, to 210,000.
Analysts consulted by FactSet predicted 215 thousand requests.
The previous week’s total orders were revised upwards from 210,000 to 212,000. The number of continued orders showed an increase of 24 thousand in the week ended March 16, to 1.819 million, above the FactSet consensus of 1.815 million.
This indicator is released one week late.
Also noteworthy is the revision of GDP, which grew 3.4%. The result was above the previous estimate, of an increase of 3.2%, and also the forecast of analysts consulted by FactSet, of an increase of 3.3%.
On Friday, with the markets closed, the main data of the week will be released, the PCE deflator. In addition, there will be a speech by Fed President Jerome Powell.
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Tags: Ibovespa falls #1st quarter losses March dollar rises year
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