LSU vs. UCLA preview: Spread, odds and expert picks as Angel Reese and Lauren Betts meet in the Sweet 16

This LSU vs. UCLA clash has a lot of surface drama — Kim Mulkey has generated headlines of late, and Angel Reese is one of the sport’s most magnetic and talked-about stars. But the big trends overshadow other exciting storylines, not to mention that this may emerge as the best game of the tournament so far (and possibly for its entirety).

For instance, LSU guard Flau’jae Johnson averages 14.4 points per game, shoots 38.1 percent from 3, was on “America’s Got Talent” at age 14, and has a collaboration with Lil’ Wayne on the horizon. UCLA center Lauren Betts is a 6-foot-7 transfer from Stanford who was ESPN’s No. 1 ranked recruit in 2022. She averages nearly a double-double (and has four in her last five games), is fifth in the nation in FG percentage and she’s signed to a modeling agency that only features women 6-foot-4 or taller.

And there is more. A lot more. We didn’t even get to Kiki Rice yet! This game is, as noted below, “appointment viewing.” Let’s dive in!

Ben Pickman’s keys to the game

Which team will create extra possessions?

LSU and UCLA are two of the best teams in the nation on the glass. The Bruins are currently in the 99th percentile of offensive rebound percentage, according to CBB Analytics, retrieving their misses 41.5 percent of the team. That’s only slightly less than LSU, which is in the 100th percentile and grabs an offensive rebound on 44 percent of its missed shots. Controlling the offensive and defensive glass will be paramount, as will not commit careless turnovers. LSU had a season-high 24 turnovers in its opening-round win over Rice and has had 15 or more turnovers in five of its last six games.

From our Sweet 16 preview:

The Tigers were locked in a struggle against MTSU for two-and-a-half quarters until Flau’jae Johnson turned on the jets. The Bruins were in an even bigger hole in the second half of their second-round game but similarly relied on a sophomore guard — Kiki Rice — to power their comeback. Now, the two heavyweights — who placed first and third in The Athletic‘s preseason power rankings — meet in the Sweet 16.

The reason Albany 2 was considered the Region of Death was because of matchups like this. LSU won it all last year, and it has the current SEC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, as well as a four-time title-winning head coach (who, umm, might be a little more distracted than usual). The Tigers also brought in this year’s No. 1 recruiting class. The Bruins counter with 2022’s top class, which Lauren Betts is now a part of, as well as projected first-round draft pick Charisma Osborne.

The matchup between Angel Reese and Betts will be appointment viewing. Betts has the size and is more polished in the post, but nobody works harder than Reese, who will fight her counterpart for every inch in the post. Osborne will have the task of defending Johnson and specifically preventing the star from sophomore getting loose in transition, but Osborne is no stranger to difficult matchups. UCLA’s advantage could come at point guard, where Rice is bigger and more physical than Hailey Van Lith, potentially forcing LSU to bring in Last-Tear Poa for her defensive prowess.

The Tigers have the edge in experience, but the Bruins are deeper and arguably more talented. UCLA has beaten teams as good as, if not better than, LSU in the regular season, but the Tigers have turned it on in the NCAA Tournament with a similar cast of characters before.

– Sabreena Merchant

How to watch UCLA vs. LSU

What: Albany 2 Region, Sweet 16

Typeoff time: 1 pm ET Saturday

TV: ABC

Location: Albany, NY

You can buy tickets to any tournament game here.

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UCLA vs. LSU odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks and projections

Sabreena’s Pick: LSU to win

Austin Mock’s projection: Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the chances for each team to make it through each round of the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the women’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here is our projected score:

Players to watch

LSU

Angel Reese, junior forward, SEC Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC, SEC all-defensive team
Mikaylah Williams, freshman guard, SEC Freshman of the Year
Aneesah Morrow, junior guard, first-team All-SEC
Flau’jae Johnson, sophomore guard, second-team All-SEC