An increase also influenced by cuts in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) could affect the plans of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates.
In the Bank of America Research report, released today, Blanch recalls that raw material prices reached their lowest level in two years in early 2024, providing inflation relief that benefits consumers.
However, he adds that OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tensions and economic growth have reversed the price trend and now point to “a tighter than expected summer trading season”.
Francisco Blanch warns that, in this context, the main data shows that a cyclical recovery is in sight, precisely when the Fed and the ECB are about to start reducing interest rates, so an increase in oil prices “could further limit plus the ability of central banks to provide stimulus”, he states.
Based on these reasons, the entity raised its average price forecasts and places the price of a barrel of Brent, the reference in the EU, at 86 dollars at the end of the year, and that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the reference in the USA, at 81 dollars.
The price of crude oil could then reach a maximum of $95 this summer, according to Bank of America estimates.
Today, the price of Brent oil rose to $89.26, and WTI to $85.41.
