currency follows Treasuries and commodities fall

04/23/2024 10:32

Updated on: 04/23/2024 10:33

O dollar reverses the rhythm of the last two trading sessions of decline and starts Tuesday (23) on a high.

A dollar exchange rate still follows the income of Treasuries amid the fall in commodities. Oil fell close to around 9:30 am and iron ore closed down 1.91% in China.

Focus Bulletin downgrades Selic and worsens dollar exchange rate

Investors reflect the worsening of projections for IPCA, Selic, dollar exchange rate and public debt-GDP ratio in the Focus bulletin, following changes in fiscal targets for the coming years and increased uncertainty about interest rate cuts in the US this year and the total Selic easing cycle in the country.

There is still expectation for federal government revenue data in March (10:30 am). The market’s median expectation points to a real gain of 7.5%, to R$191.10 billion, after R$186.522 billion in February, according to Projeções Broadcast.

There are also expectations for the presentation of the Perse projects, possibly today, and the tax reform to Congress, tomorrow (24).

Libra accelerates

Abroad, after gaining strength with PMI data from the region earlier, the pound accelerated gains against the dollar, advancing above US$1.24, amid comments from the chief economist of the Bank of England (BoE, its acronym in English), Huw Pill.

The leader expressed caution regarding the UK’s macroeconomic scenario, stating that there is still no “substantial data” to justify changing monetary policy at the moment. According to him, a reduction in interest rates may be closer, but the persistence of inflation creates risks and requires prolonged maintenance of the restrictive level.

With the period of silence from Federal Reserve leaders before next week’s monetary meeting, investors are still awaiting US PMI data for March (10:45 am) and balance sheets.

At 9:34 am this Tuesday, the dollar cash rose 0.15%, to R$5.1754. O future dollar for May it increased 0.06%, to R$ 5.1785.

With information from Estadão Conteúdo.