Dollar rises and reaches R$5.193 before decision in the USA; Stock market falls

The dollar jumped 1.52%, this Tuesday (30), and closed the day at R$5.193, while investors continued to wait for the monetary policy decision of the Fed (Federal Reserve), the central bank of the United States. During the month, the American currency accumulated an increase of 3.54% against the real.

After two trading sessions on the rise, the Ibovespa closed the day with a drop of 1.12%, at 125,924.19 points. The main B3 index fell 1.70% in April.

The value of the dollar reported daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar (learn more by clicking here). For those who are going to travel and need to buy currency at exchange brokers, the reference is the tourist dollar, and the value is much higher.

What happened

At the day’s high, the Ibovespa reached 127,351.62 points. At the minimum, at 125,855.79 points.

The market awaits the release of data by the US central bank and avoids taking risks. Tomorrow (1st) — when it will be a Labor Day holiday in Brazil — the Fed will announce the monetary policy decision.

The expectation is that the US central bank will maintain interest rates at the current level of 5.25% to 5.50%. Traders are pricing in just about 35 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed this year, down from about 150 basis points estimated in early 2024, according to LSEG data. Reduction in US monetary easing expectations came after a string of resilient economic and inflation data, which in turn led to a sharp reversal in global risk appetite in April, although the mood improved somewhat towards the end of the month.

On Friday (3), the US non-agricultural employment report will come into the focus of investors. This data can provide more clues about the health of the economy and the need for interest rate cuts.

Investors also evaluate the Focus newsletter. Data, released today, showed little change in market estimates for this and next year.

Analysts maintained an estimate for the 2024 IPCA at 3.73% and that of 2025 at 3.60%. The projection for the Selic rate also did not change compared to last week, remaining at 9.50% this year and 9% in 2025. However, it was raised from 8.5% to 8.63% in 2026 .

The unemployment rate in Brazil was 7.9% in the quarter ended in March. The data are from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The result came close to the minimum expectations of analysts interviewed by Projeções Broadcast. Estimates ranged from 7.8% to 8.2%, with a median of 8.1%.

(With Estadão Conteúdo and Reuters)