O dollar operates at a high in the spot market this Tuesday (30th) at the end of the month.
The dollar exchange rate follows the external gain of the American currency and Treasury yields.
On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and a holiday in Brazil, both this Wednesday (1st), it is also possible to observe the technical factor weighing on the adjustment of the exchangeamid the defense of positions by longs (betting on the rise of the dollar) and shorts (betting on the fall) in foreign exchange contracts in the futures market.
Investors also look at the Focus bulletin, which showed few changes in market estimates for this and next year, and data from the country’s job market.
Data in Brazil
In Focus, analysts consulted by the BC maintained the estimate for the IPCA for 2024 at 3.73% and that for 2025 at 3.60%. The projection for the Selic rate also did not change compared to last week, remaining at 9.50% this year and 9% in 2025. However, it was raised from 8.5% to 8.63% in 2026 .
The unemployment rate in Brazil was 7.9% in the quarter ended in March, according to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result came close to the minimum expectations of analysts interviewed by Projeções Broadcast. Estimates ranged from 7.8% to 8.2%, with a median of 8.1%.
In the same period of 2023, the unemployment rate measured by Pnad Contínua was 8.8%. In the quarter ending in February 2024, the unemployment rate was 7.8%. The worker’s real average income was R$3,123 in the quarter ended in March, an increase of 4.0% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Last month’s Caged (9:30 am) and the Federal Public Debt stock (2:30 pm) are also expected.
Dollar exchange rate
At 9:29 am, the dollar in cash rose 0.38%, to R$5.1354.
O dollar (future) for June, most traded as of today, rose 0.51%, to R$5.1630.
With information from Estadão Conteúdo.
