The spot dollar closed Monday practically stable in Brazil, with investors maintaining positions before the meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which ends on Wednesday, in a relatively positive day for exporter currencies of commodities abroad.
The US currency in cash closed the day at 5.0749 reais on sale, a slight increase of 0.11%. In May, the currency accumulated a drop of 2.27%, after the strong declines on Thursday and Friday.
Dollar futures for June — the nearest expiration date — were practically stable. At 5:14 pm, on B3, the first maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.03%, to 5.0764 reais on sale.
In the two previous sessions, the dollar in cash went from a level close to 5.20 reais to the range of 5.06 reais, with some market agents citing the removal of a certain “exaggeration” in prices after relief brought by the Federal Reserve meeting and by US inflation data last week.
This Monday, the North American currency fluctuated within narrow margins, without the strength to reach lower levels or, on the contrary, get closer to 5.10 reais.
In the market, the assessment was that investors are now awaiting the Central Bank’s monetary policy decision, on Wednesday, as there are doubts about what the cut in the Selic base rate will be — 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
Depending on the announcement and, mainly, on the BC’s assessment of the future of the Selic base rate, currently at 10.75% per year, the interest differential between Brazil and abroad could narrow, which would put pressure on the exchange rate.
Abroad, the day was favorable to the currencies of commodity or emerging exporters, such as the Chilean peso and the Mexican peso, which also helped to maintain dollar prices in Brazil.
In this scenario, after registering a maximum price of 5.0921 reais (+0.43%) at 9:53 am — still in the first hour of business — the dollar in cash reached a minimum of 5.0608 reais (-0.17% ) at 3:01 p.m. Afterwards, it returned to stability.
Abroad, the US currency gave way in the late afternoon against strong pairs. At 5:11 pm, the dollar index — which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six currencies — fell 0.06%, to 105.110.
In the morning, the BC sold all 12,000 traditional currency swap contracts offered to roll over July maturities.
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