The Copom’s decision on Wednesday (8) suggested that, from 2025 onwards, we will have a more lenient Central Bank. And the market gave its opinion on the matter on Thursday (9): stock market down, dollar and future interest rates up.
Ibov: -1.00%, to 128,188
Dollar: 1.01%, at R$5.14
Future interest: high across the entire time curve – with greater strength from 2027 onwards (a reflection in the real world: if you intend to finance a property you will pay more, as future interest rates serve as a guide for the rates for this type of operation).
Recapping what was revealing yesterday. The Monetary Policy Committee, which determines the Selic, is made up of eight directors of the Central Bank plus the president of the agency, Roberto Campos Neto. Every 45 days, the Copom meets, each member casts their vote and the majority decision wins.
And the score of the May 8th meeting, in football notation, was 0.25 pp cut 5 X 4 0.50 pp cut.
They voted in favor of the stronger cut, despite the greater fiscal risk and the still unfriendly environment abroad for easing:
Ailton Aquino
Gabriel Galípolo
Paulo Picchetti
Rodrigo Teixeira
All were appointed to the BC during the Lula government.
Those appointed in the Bolsonaro government voted to halt the reductions, which had been in doses of 0.50 pp since August last year. Are they:
Carolina de Assis Barros
Diogo Guilen
Otávio Ribeiro Damaso
Renato Gomes
Roberto Campos Neto
Everyone, apart from Diogo Guilen and Renato Gomes, leaves on December 31, 2024.
And, from what the division among voters suggested, the hawkish wing of the BC will be an absolute minority next year. This is not good news for those who expect inflation to be under control in the long term.
Good luck for all of us.
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