Nigel Farage is “controversial, loved and hated”: the strategy of the populist architect of Brexit, which already threatens the British Conservative Party

When André Ventura corrects himpresenting the sum of two parliamentary seats with the revelation of the results of constituencies abroad, Nigel Farage shows effusive admiration. The electoral system in the United Kingdom would not allow him, from the outset, – even if, like Chega, with 18% of the votes – to gain even a tenth of the 50 deputies won by Ventura’s party. As Christopher Pich, professor of Political Marketing at Nottingham University Business School, explains to Expresso, Despite all the recent enthusiasm around Reform UK and the apparent rise in polls, the UK electoral system will limit its success.

“We need to look back to the 2015 UK general election. UKIP [também era liderado por Farage] it scored well in the polls, and the Conservatives were anxious about the prospect of a rise, and we may see a similar situation after the general election in the coming months: Reform UK’s high vote share may not translate into seats. Very few reformist candidates will be elected in the next UK general election, as a result of the ‘first-past-the-post’ system in the UK.”

“The UK electoral system makes it extremely difficult for insurgent parties such as Reform UK and others to secure seats in Parliament”, highlights Filippo Trevisan, professor of Political Communication at the School of Communication at the American University. If voting intentions materialize in the Westminster elections, the Conservative Party could see its participation in Parliament greatly reduced, leaving it relegated to an inferior position, part of a weakened opposition.

Opinion studies show that the Reform UKnow led by Richard Tice, gathers around 10% of British preferences. Although the mark may not be enough to elect, it is already substantial enough to make the Conservatives, who are in decline, tremble. A survey presented by BBClast month, reveals that support for Reform UK was mostly transferred from the Tories, who also lose voters to Labour. For every voter who has switched since 2019 from the Conservatives to Labor, there is another who has switched to Reform UK. Analysts attribute the turnaround to the charisma of Nigel Farage, the populist leader who is still the face behind Reform. “Nigel Farage continues to be a very influential politician, more popular among Conservative Party voters than Rishi Sunak”, points out Matthew Goodwin, professor of Politics and expert on populism at the University of Kent. “So for this reason alone, everything he does or says should be taken very seriously by the Conservative Party,” concludes Goodwin.

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