There is uncertainty about what socialist leader Pedro Sánchez will decide. There are those who see in the surprising political crisis opened by Sánchez a strategic movement with the objective, from the victimization, to emerge reinforced, with revalidation, through a motion of confidence, of the support of the majority parliamentary platform formed by the group of eight parties of the left and the center that include Basque and Catalan nationalists and independenceists. It is the platform that makes up the absolute majority (179 of the 350 deputies) that made the inauguration of the Sánchez government possible. If the intention is to have a motion of confidence, the political move contains risks, especially because there are elections in Catalonia in two weeks, in a context in which all polls show the socialists ahead and it is known that Junts per Catalunya (obstinately independent , politically to the right of the center) of Carles Puigdemont is unpredictable and has the habit of putting any political support at a high price, which includes a broad amnesty for independence supporters (this is his case, Puigdemont, who if he enters Spain is arrested) and summons of a referendum on the independence of Catalonia (a demand that Sánchez will never be able to accept).
There is a possibility that Sánchez will decide to leave. If this is the case, a political earthquake will be triggered, opening up even greater rifts in Spanish society, with the left accusing the right of base methods in order to delegitimize the adversary placed as the enemy in a context in which no compromise or even dialogue is possible.
If Sánchez chooses to resign, early elections appear to be the almost inevitable path forward. In this case, without Sánchez, the left has no obvious leader to lead it. The right-wing parties (PP and Vox), which have done everything to defeat Sánchez, and the left-wing coalition with nationalists and independentists, are exposed to the fire of discussion about the brutal ways of exercising opposition.
At the center of these for now five days of political crisis is Begoña Gómez, married to Pedro Sánchez. On Wednesday, El Confidencial, a digital newspaper aligned with the right, published that judge Juan Carlos Peinado, from the Provincial Audience of Madrid (from the 4th section of the Madrid court of instruction) had opened investigations into the practice of drug trafficking influences and corruption on the part of the government president’s wife.
This investigation was opened by the judge following a complaint sent by Miguel Bernad, a character with a Francoist past, now general secretary of “Manos Limpias”, an organization that presents itself as a “union of public administration employees”, in the orbit of the ultra-right. . The complaint, in seven pages, brings together the text of eight publications on digital channels, which states that Begoña Gomez, being director of an institute at the Complutense University of Madrid, which has a cooperation protocol with Air Europa, would have influenced the Sánchez government was generous in providing financial assistance to that airline during the pandemic shutdown; In another publication, the suspicion is raised that Begoña signed one of the 32 letters of recommendation from a businessman in an application for a public tender.
Faced with the news of the investigation into the woman, that same day, after a morning of debate in parliament, in which he appeared with an expression that showed revolt, Sánchez went to meet the woman and, together – as far as we know, without informing the political nucleus closest or to advisors – he wrote an open letter to Spanish citizens, in which he says that “in the face of attacks on women, based on non-existent facts”, he understands that he needs to “stop to reflect” on whether, in the face of this swamp situation “he deserves It’s worth continuing to lead the government.” Sánchez adds that she takes five days to reflect. He set the announcement of what he had decided for this Monday, at a press conference.
The right jumped out to scream that Sánchez is exaggerating the dramatization and exploiting victimization as a political marketing maneuver.
Some commentators admitted that Sánchez actually wants to leave the government and aim for the presidency of the European Council in his personal future, a position for which he is well positioned, especially given António Costa’s current impasse.
On the left, there is a general uprising of the PSOE leadership and bases demanding that Sánchez continue (“We cannot let those who want the swamp and degrade politics to win” – one of the most vibrantly applauded phrases in Saturday’s demonstration in front of the Socialists’ headquarters in Madrid). The Basque nationalists of the PNV (centrists) and the Catalan independentists of the ERC (leftist) declare support for Sánchez and urge him to continue and move forward with Spain’s plan for political change – in essence, the transfer of more power from Madrid to the different regions, ideas that the right rejects. From the left there are also many attacks on the hyperactive “media right that invents stories and in a scoundrel way poisons the political debate in Spain”.
In the midst of this high tension, whistleblower Miguel Bernad appeared to say that he limited himself to sending excerpts of what he had seen published to the judge. He added that he had no proof of its veracity, so he sent it to the judge to inquire.
The Fiscalia (Attorney’s Office) carried out a summary investigation into the matter in the complaint and requested the judge to close the case. It concluded that state support for Air Europa was proportional to that granted to thousands of companies during the pandemic shutdown period. The letter of recommendation signed by Begoña Gómez is one of 32, limiting itself to attesting facts.
The position of the Prosecutor’s Office, coinciding with Bernad’s position as a mere repeater of what he read but without proof, led to the fact that on Saturday morning, in the middle of the period of reflection set by Sánchez, he settled among left-wing supporters , the conviction that Sánchez would decide to continue, betting on the use of the confidence motion.
But, already this Sunday, socialist leaders closest to Sánchez were aware of concern because “they don’t see it as easy for Sánchez to be willing to continue”. The Minister of Transport, Óscar Puente, even declares himself pessimistic.
There is great uncertainty about what will happen in political Spain from this Monday onwards. A political earthquake could occur if Sánchez opts to resign. There is additional uncertainty if Sánchez decides to present a motion of confidence, when it is known that among the eight partners there are those, like Junts, who are not 100% reliable.
Sánchez throughout his political career has shown himself to be resilient. Even within the PSOE he was brave in challenging the so-called barons who preferred another choice to lead the party. He always shows great ability to land several blows, some very low. It is surprising that, in this case, he shows signs of fragility, to the point of having provoked this coup d’état after five days with 48 million Spaniards on standby.
There is an unquestionable fact: in Spain in recent years, any kind of negotiation for agreements and constructive political practice has become impossible. What a political scientist defined on RTVE channel 24 as “the scoundrel practice of destroying the opposite” prevails. It is not clear that this crisis can improve the poor state of political coexistence in Spain, with a deep divide between right and left, between the Spain of Castile and that of the peripheries, especially the Basque Country and Catalonia.
