Ukraine is unable to stop Russia’s daily advances in the war, despite “some positions changing hands several times a day”

Russia is making daily tactical gains in eastern Ukraine as concerns revolve around Ukrainian military reports

Vladimir Putin’s troops have made new gains in at least three locations along Ukraine’s eastern front – including, for the first time in several months, an advance into the country’s northern Kharkiv region – exposing Kiev’s need for munitions. and weapons from the United States and other allies.

Russia’s tactical advances are now daily and reflect the new rhythm on the battlefield since the fall of the industrial city of Avdiivka in February.

The gains are generally modest – from a few hundred meters of territory to at most a kilometer – but are occurring in several areas at the same time.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s losses are being accompanied by criticism from influential bloggers and military analysts of the military’s official battlefield updates.

One of Russia’s main efforts is in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, which updates changes in frontline positions daily, shows Russian forces advancing in eight different locations along 20-25 km of the frontline in a 24-hour period.

Military bloggers on both sides reported that Russian forces crossed a watercourse and took control of the villages of Semenivka and Berdychi – which the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, confirmed in a message posted on Telegram on Sunday. Russia had deployed up to four brigades in offensive operations in the area, Syrskyi said.

A few kilometers to the north, Soloviove is now also in Russian hands and the small village of Keramik, at least in part, too.

“The withdrawal in the Donetsk operational zone continues,” wrote Ukrainian military blogger Myroshnykov.

A little further south, Russian forces are also advancing on the industrial city of Krasnohorivka, entering from the south and east.

Fierce fighting was reported around the city’s large brick factory. A Russian military blogger wrote about the importance of the battle: “The liberation of the factory would actually mean the fall of the Krasnohorivka fortification, as the northern outskirts of the town are made up of private buildings, which will be too difficult to defend if the factory is lost.”

Elsewhere, about 180 km to the north, Russian forces also scored their first successes in nearly three months in the part of the front line running through the Kharkiv region.

A Ukrainian army spokesman described Russian forces as having become “significantly more active”, while DeepState speaks of a Russian advance of one to two kilometers towards the village of Kyslivka.

Generally speaking, the front lines in this region have been among the most stable since Ukraine recaptured a large swath of territory in the Kharkiv region in late summer 2022.

Criticisms of military communications

As withdrawals and losses piled up, military bloggers like Myroshnykov and the website DeepState criticized official Ukrainian communications, accusing the military of increasingly unrealistic battlefield updates.

DeepState, in a Telegram post, published a video of a Russian soldier killed in a drone strike in the village of Soloviove – but used the footage to argue that isolated incidents can mask the bigger picture, which it accused the military of doing so as well.

“You can watch with pleasure, forever, the video of a Russian soldier being torn to pieces,” DeepState wrote, “but nearby there is another location that requires attention: Muscovites calmly moving through the village, keeping it under control “. “The (Ukrainian) Defense Forces inflict fire damage on them, and it can be repeated at least a billion times (on national television) that two-thirds of the village is under the control of the Ukrainian military, but the picture of reality It’s completely different,” he added.

This assessment – that two-thirds of the village of Soloviove was under Ukrainian control – was made by Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for the Khortytsia strategic-operational group, on Ukrainian television on Saturday. The neighboring village of Ocheretyne also continues to be two-thirds controlled by Ukraine, which has everything under control, according to the same source.

For its part, DeepState has a different view, saying that Russian troops have controlled the center of the village of Ocheretyne, including the train station, for at least three days. Last week, the monitoring website made a similar complaint against the military, accusing “some spokespeople” of incompetence.

Ukrainian army leader Syrskyi appeared to address these concerns in his Sunday Telegram message, suggesting that the misunderstandings were due to the fluidity of events.

“There is a dynamic change in the situation, some positions change hands several times a day, which gives rise to an ambiguous understanding of the situation,” he wrote.

But he also acknowledged that the general situation in Ukraine had deteriorated.

“The situation at the front has worsened. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy concentrated its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in terms of forces and resources,” he added.

Russia last made small gains in the region in late January and early February, but DeepState reports a new advance of one to two kilometers towards the village of Kyslivka. Generally speaking, the front lines in this region have been relatively stable since Ukraine recaptured a large swath of territory in the Kharkiv region in late summer 2022.

Russian forces are also advancing west of the city of Donetsk, entering the industrial city of Krasnohorivka from the south and east.

More short-term setbacks

Many Western analysts, as well as Ukrainian officials, consider Russia’s current rapid pace to be a precursor to a major offensive in late spring. It is also assumed that Moscow wants to take advantage of its significant ammunition advantage before US weapons – authorized last week after six months of political stalemate – reach the front lines.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), think tank North American, anticipates that there will be more setbacks in the short term for Ukraine, although without major strategic defeats.

“Russian forces are likely to make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for U.S. assistance to reach the front, but it is unlikely they will be able to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses,” ISW wrote.

Ukraine’s other major quantitative weakness, which also helps explain recent battlefield trajectories, is labor. A new mobilization law comes into force next month, which should improve recruitment processes. But Kiev has been very reluctant to say clearly how many more soldiers it needs, while Moscow continues to increase numbers.

“The quality (of Russian fighters) varies, of course, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem,” argued Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. think tank North American, in X.

“Without the manpower advantage, Russia’s artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is probably the most important factor that will determine the trajectory of the war, especially if Russia manages to maintain recruitment of 20-30 thousand people per month”, defended Lee.

*Yulia Kesaieva, Maria Kostenko and Victoria Butenko contributed to this article