“I worry that we may be seeing a repeat of the ‘Brexit’ referendum and Trump’s victory in 2016, when young people woke up in shock because they had not had their say at the polls,” said Sadiq Khan, last week. Mayor of London, at a campaign event for this Thursday’s local election in the capital of the United Kingdom.
Looking at the polls, the words of the mayor and member of the Labor Party seem to sound the dramatization. A survey published on Tuesday by YouGov attributed 47% of voting intentions to him and just 25% to the Conservative Party candidate, Susan Hall – Zoe Garbett (7%, Green Party), Rob Blackie (6%, Liberals- Democrats) and Howard Cox (6%, Reform UK) occupy the next positions, in an election with 13 candidates.
In office since 2016, Khan nevertheless believes that an unfortunate combination of different factors could make the London race much closer than the polls suggest and, therefore, insisted on the appeal: “In the 2020 US elections, participation of young people helped the Democrats defeat Donald Trump. I’m asking young Londoners to do the same in London and make sure we don’t let the Conservative candidate win in our city.”
One of these factors is its growing unpopularity. According to the YouGov survey, 46% of respondents say they have an “unfavorable” opinion of the mayor, compared to 38% who say they have a “favorable” opinion. In addition, 45% say Khan is doing a “bad job” and 41% say he is doing a “good job”.
Part of this unpopularity can be explained by the increase in the cost of living in the capital, particularly in housing, but also by the high levels of crime with bladed weapons – just on Tuesday a 14-year-old boy was killed and four people were injured after an attack carried out by a man armed with a sword.
A recent study by Queen Mary University also shows a higher number of inhabitants unhappy with Khan in the suburbs of London (49%), compared to those in the city center (37%), a phenomenon that analysts attribute to the decision of the president of the chamber to expand the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a measure aimed at reducing transport emissions by imposing a daily tax on the most polluting vehicles.
Although the “clean air” zone was designed and implemented in 2019, by then mayor Conservative Londoner (and former Prime Minister) Boris Johnson, the party tory has been fighting the measure and Hall promises to reverse its expansion if he beats Khan in these elections, the result of which will only be known on Saturday.
You Tories have also criticized Sadiq Khan for having allowed a series of pro-Palestinian demonstrations and protests against Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip – he was even accused by Lee Anderson, former vice-president of the Conservative Party, of being “controlled by Islamists” – in the city, but, on this issue, he has also been denounced by the most left-wing wing of his party, which links him to the official position of Keir Starmer’s leadership on the conflict, defending a “humanitarian truce” in the enclave, in instead of an “immediate and definitive ceasefire”.
The main fear of the Mayor of London is, however, related to the 2022 changes to electoral legislation.
Khan believes that the mandatory presentation of an identity card and the end of the supplementary voting system – in which voters defined one candidate as their first preference and another as their second preference, thus increasing the chances of victory for the favorite candidate –, combined with a smaller participation, can cause discomfort.
