The ISEG and CIP barometer explains that “after the acceleration of growth recorded at the end of 2023”, this study identifies a positive evolution in several indicators, pointing to “an upward momentum that could extend to the quarter”.
The momentum of the Portuguese economy at the beginning of the year could extend to the quarter, despite the risks to economic activity remaining high, according to the conclusion of the ISEG/CIP barometer revealed this Wednesday.
The balance of goods and services had, in January, a positive balance of 360 million euros, which compares with the negative balance of 127 million euros in the same month of 2023. The Bank of Portugal says that this “was the first surplus balance in a month of January since 2016”.
Contributing to this result was the reduction of 297 million euros in the goods balance deficit to 1,469 million euros (explained mainly by the reduction in imports, of 288 million euros, and the increase in exports, of 9.0 million euros) .
This barometer explains that “after the acceleration of growth recorded at the end of 2023”, this study identifies a positive evolution in several indicators, pointing to “an upward momentum that could extend to the quarter”.
The CIP highlights that, in particular, at the beginning of the year, “industry declines less intensely, construction grows at a faster pace, services activity recovers compared to December, turnover in retail trade continues to grow, albeit slowly , automobile demand grows more intensely”.
Therefore, positive developments are expected for the first quarter, mainly arising from domestic demand, which should ensure year-on-year growth of more than 1% of GDP, highlights the CIP barometer.
In relation to the entire year 2024, this ISEG/CIP barometer “does not change — yet — the forecast for growth to be in the range of 1% to 2%, which could happen as early as next month”. The Portuguese Business Confederation recalls that “the growth forecast left by the outgoing government points to 1.5%; The AD electoral program already sets the target at 1.6%”.
Rafael Alves Rocha, general director of CIP, highlights that “the wealth created in the last quarter of last year was decisive in positively influencing this start of the year” and the industry, “however, continues to decline, which reflects the difficulties and also the uncertainty that Portugal faces”.
“More than ever, all political actors must find platforms of understanding capable of reducing party-political uncertainty and, thus, allowing the country, which has been on hold for five months now, to refocus on the essentials: life of the Portuguese and the competitiveness of companies”, concludes the director.
