Inflation accelerates to 2.3% in March. It is the second acceleration this year – Conjuntura

A Inflation will have accelerated again, in year-on-year terms, to 2.3% in Marchaccording to the quick estimate released this Thursday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This is the second acceleration this yearafter the year-on-year variation in inflation reversed the downward trend in January.

“Based on the information already gathered, the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index will have increased to 2.3% in March 2024, a rate 0.2 percentage points higher than that observed in the previous month”, indicates INE .

A inunderlying inflation, which excludes products that are most subject to price changes (unprocessed food and energy), will also have accelerated, in year-on-year terms, to 2.5%. The value compares with 2.1% in the previous month, and it is above all this indicator that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been paying attention to to understand whether it is the ideal time to start cutting interest rates. O index for energy products accelerated again to the highest value of the last year, having reached a year-on-year variation of 4.8%. Compared to the previous month, the year-on-year variation in energy prices increased by five tenths, reviving fears that a new acceleration in energy prices could delay the disinflation process in Portugal.

On the other hand, the year-on-year variation in the index for unprocessed food products reached negative values ​​for the first time in more than two years: went from 0.8% in February to -0.5% in March. This slowdown occurred “partially as a result of the base effect associated with the price increase recorded in March 2023”, one month before VAT Zero came into force.

Compared to the previous month, the IPC variation was 2.0%, after being zero in February. INE estimates that the average variation in the last twelve months was 2.9%, which compares with 3.3% in the previous month.

Already the Portuguese harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which allows price developments to be compared with those of other Member States, recorded a year-on-year variation of 2.6%. The value corresponds to three tenths more than the remainder in the previous month.

The definitive IPC data for March will be published on April 10th.

(news updated at 11:22)