Putin on the verge of the last threshold before World War III: the tactical nuclear bomb is about to enter the war

The Kremlin heard Macron want to send Western troops to Ukraine, then Cameron gave the green light to the indiscriminate and unrestricted use of British weapons by the Kiev army and was fed up

In response to statements by Emmanuel Macron about sending Western troops to Ukraine and by David Cameron about Kiev using British weapons as it sees fit, Valdimir Putin took unprecedented measures: the Kremlin announced for the first time military exercises with tactical nuclear bombs.

The reaction to the “provocative statements and threats from some Western officials towards the Russian Federation” was also accompanied by the summoning of the British ambassador to Russia to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he was warned that the use of British weapons on Russian soil would merit retaliatory actions against UK military infrastructure or equipment in Ukraine or elsewhere.

“The Russians raised the verbal stakes with a pre-warning of escalation, which substantiates the transition from the local theater of operations in Ukraine to the regional theater in Europe”, explains Major General Agostinho Costa, who warns that, if the threat of If the Kremlin takes effect, there are two scenarios on the table: “An attack against the British on Ukrainian soil that will not be a reason to trigger article 5 or, in a very different case, the attack being launched against British targets, but outside Ukraine Then we entered World War III.”

Agostinho Costa explains that Russian military doctrine is made up of several levels and that Putin is preparing to enter the third: the tactical nuclear level. The 1st level involves “escalation without direct confrontation as happened until February 24th”, he explains, in which there is infiltration of troops and some hostile movements that could include, for example, the occupation of Crimea in 2014. The 2nd The .th level is the one that began on February 24th, which involves the “local conflict restricted to a limited area”, which both the USA and Russia have tried to prolong as long as possible to the despair of the Ukrainians.

Finally, there is the 3rd level, the “tactical nuclear level” in which the “theater of operations expands, stops being local and becomes regional, in this case, in Europe and the North Atlantic”. The major general highlights that this will also be the phase in which the “entry of Western forces into the theater of operations” takes place.

“There is still one more level, but it will not be used. When the army of one of the parties is practically dead or unable to continue, there is nuclear weapons prepared to be automatically activated in desperation”, explains Major General Agostinho Costa.

Tactical and conventional nuclear weapons: the Kremlin protocol

In February, the Financial Times had access to confidential Russian documents describing the circumstances under which the Moscow army must use tactical and conventional nuclear weapons.

The American newspaper analyzed 29 secret Russian military files prepared between 2008 and 2014 that include scenarios for war strategies and operational principles for the use of nuclear weapons.

According to what is described, the Kremlin is willing to use this type of weaponry against an enemy incursion into Russian territory or in more specific cases, such as the destruction of 20% of Russian strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30% of Russian submarines, nuclear-powered attack, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous attack on main and reserve coastal command centers. An attack on Moscow with British Storm Shadow missiles could be considered an enemy incursion on Russian soil.

Regarding the use of conventional nuclear bombs, the Financial Times explains that the documents point out that they would be chosen given a combination of factors in which the losses suffered by Russian forces “would irrevocably lead to their inability to prevent a major enemy aggression” or a “situation critical to Russia’s state security.”

This was the first time that the West had access to documents like these or at least that they had been made public. After seeing the documents, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center in Berlin, created at the end of the Cold War to discourage the use of nuclear weapons, reacted thus: “They show that the operational threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is quite low if the desired result cannot be achieved through conventional means.”

Although the files are more than ten years old, experts, contacted by the Financial Times, say they continue to be relevant to current Russian military doctrine.

Tactical nuclear bombs

Simply put, the big difference between tactical and conventional nuclear bombs is their destructive power, that is, they have fewer kilotons. However, as Agostinho Costa warns, this can be a misleading definition. On August 4, 1945, the USA dropped the first atomic bomb, called Little Boy, on Hiroshima. It had the equivalent of 15 tons of TNT and decimated a large part of the Japanese city. Today, a tactical nuclear bomb is between 5 and 50 kilotons.

As Major General Agostinho Costa points out, this means that if a tactical nuclear bomb weighing just 5 kilotons hit the statue of the Marquês de Pombal, in Lisbon, “the entire downtown area would suffer considerable damage” and “very serious damage would be felt.” they would perhaps be within a radius equivalent to the distance to Saldanha”. As for radiation, even at slight levels, it would reach Santarém, as the Nuke Map simulator also shows.

At least 11,400 people would die and more than 33,300 would be injured.

If this were a 50-kiloton tactical nuclear bomb, about three times more powerful than the Little Boy, the significant damage would exceed Alvalade. Within a radius of around three kilometers everything would be affected by the shock wave and thermal radiation that would cause third-degree burns in a matter of seconds. The radiation, taking into account the wind that was felt this Tuesday, would reach Proença-a-Nova, 155 kilometers away.

At least 59,400 people would die and more than 110,700 would be injured.

But why now?

Major General Agostinho Costa understands that “we cannot disconnect all this verbal war from the moment we are living in”, remembering that, just this week, there was Putin’s inauguration, attacks with Ukrainian drones on the ports of Crimea, a new model of Ukrainian drone and “a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge is still expected”.

Furthermore, “the F-16s will arrive shortly and we will see what kind of adaptations they will bring, given that some have the capacity to launch nuclear weapons”, recalls the CNN Portugal commentator, noting, however, that “David Cameron It was too bold.” “A Foreign Minister should not make gratuitous statements”, he explains, considering that the person responsible “should have measured his words, because he assumed that British weapons can be used in depth and that is what the Russians fear most”.

“If Ukraine uses Storm Shadow missiles to attack Belgorod or Russian vessels in the Black Sea there will be a paradigm shift and it is expected that the Russian military will respond with the British based in Ukraine as a target”, says Agostinho Costa, recalling what happened in January , when Russia bombed a hotel in Kharkiv, where French military advisers were staying.

The CNN Portugal commentator understands that the Kremlin’s allegations “had an effect in a psychological and communicational framework”. “Russia made everyone publicly reject escalation.” All except one: Germany. Agostinho Costa highlights that “the only exception were the Germans”.