Soybeans rose on the Chicago stock exchange and were once again trading above US$12 a bushel, while market agents await data on the US harvest. This Monday (25/3), contracts for May ended the session quoted at US$ 12.0925 per bushel, an increase of 1.40%.
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“Investors are trying to understand what the direction of prices will be, but to do so they need to know the size of the supply, and also what the current demand is, as Chinese demand for soybeans exists, but is lower than expected” , says Matheus Pereira, director of Pátria Agronegócios.
Pereira adds that soybeans in Chicago will still need more elements to see prices change levels, since there are inaccuracies about the size of the harvest in Brazil.
The planting data for the American harvest in 2024/25, which will be released by the country’s Department of Agriculture next Thursday, may have a minimum weight on stock prices, according to the analyst.
The specialized website Farm Futures predicts that soybean planting in the US will occur on 34.80 million hectares, below the 35.41 million projected by the USDA in February during the first estimate for the next season. In the 2023/24 cycle, Americans sowed 33.83 million hectares with the oilseed.
The price of corn fell on the Chicago Stock Exchange. Contracts for delivery in May closed the session down 0.34%, at US$4.3775 a bushel.
Although many take for granted a reduction in the area planted with corn in the USA in 2024/24, Matheus Pereira, from Pátria Agronegócios, says that the sowing situation may not be so unfavorable.
“The market is still divided on the size of the area destined for corn. Most producers should opt for cereal over soybeans, even with the drop in prices, as corn has great appeal for domestic consumption,” he highlights.
The Farm Futures website expects the USDA to indicate an area of 37.39 million hectares, a number that would be above the 36.83 million hectares predicted by the agency in February. In 2023/24, corn planting in the US covered 38.28 million hectares.
After accumulating an increase of 4% in the last week, wheat rose again in Chicago. Contracts for May closed up 0.04%, at US$5.55 a bushel.
“Among the reasons for the upward trend is the intensification of Russian attacks on strategic points in Ukraine, such as Odessa, the main port center from which agricultural production leaves”, highlights the Granar consultancy, in a report.
Last weekend was marked by increased tension and fighting in Russian and Ukrainian port areas, a scenario that leaves investors apprehensive about the availability of grain leaving the Black Sea.
Looking at the fundamentals of supply and demand, little should change in the short term to give prices a new direction, unless new projections for the planting of the 2024/25 American harvest bring any surprises to market agents.
According to Granar, the average market estimate expects the US Department of Agriculture to indicate a wheat sown area in the country at 19.14 million hectares. In February, the USDA forecast indicated 19.02 million, a number that is still lower than the 20.07 million planted in the 2023/24 campaign.
