Dollar drops to R$4.973 awaiting Copom minutes; Stock market remains stable

The dollar fell 0.51% and ended the day sold at R$4.973, after two consecutive sessions of gains. In March, the American currency still accumulated a slight increase of 0.01% against the real.

The Ibovespa closed practically stable, with a slight drop of 0.08%, and reached 126,931.47 points. The main B3 index registered a drop of 1.62% in the month.

The value of the dollar reported daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar (learn more by clicking here). For those who are going to travel and need to buy currency at exchange brokers, the reference is the tourist dollar, and the value is much higher.

What happened

Investors echoed speeches by US BC directors. Chicago Fed (Federal Reserve) President Austan Goolsbee said he agreed with projections that point to three interest rate cuts in 2024, but refused to speculate on when the first reduction might be. For Goolsbee, the picture is still “murky”, although he recognizes that the recent trajectory of inflation is positive.

The market awaits the Copom minutes and the inflation preview. Last week, the Central Bank reduced the Selic rate to 10.75% per year, saying it foresees another cut of 0.5 percentage points only in May. The minutes of the last Copom meeting and the IPCA-15 data will be released on Tuesday (26) and “are the main news for the local market”, Eduardo Moutinho, market analyst at Ebury Bank, told Reuters.

There is also expectation for US inflation data. It is estimated that the consumer spending price index (PCE) rose 0.3% in February over the previous month and 2.8% over the last 12 months. For analysts, any upward surprise will be considered a setback for bets on an interest rate cut in June.

It was a very warm day for the Brazilian Stock Exchange, which had below-average trading volume. In the absence of news and triggers, the market is cautious about the economic data that will come in the coming days and is still reflecting the central banks’ decisions on interest rates last week.
Leandro Petrokas, research director and partner at Quantzed

(With Estadão Conteúdo and Reuters)