Climate change increases the price of Easter eggs, says expert

Those who will buy chocolate this year for friends, family and other loved ones are likely to pay more in 2024. The increase in international chocolate prices commodity harmed chocolate manufacturers this Easter, a period with greater consumption of chocolate bars, eggs and other items.

A study by XP Investimentos points out that chocolate bars and candies are more expensive this Easter, and the expected increase in these items in March this year is 3.63% compared to the same month last year, a smaller increase than last Easter, which was 10.7%. According to XP, the study is carried out based on the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index), which does not include the specific item “Easter egg” in the basket of checked products.

Francisco Queiroz, an analyst at Itaú BBA’s agricultural consultancy, states that the spike in cocoa prices reflects climate problems that have affected the harvest of the world’s main producers and that this should result in a deficit of the product on the global market.

“The 2 largest cocoa producers in the world are Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for around 60% of production. Côte d’Ivoire, the main global producer, suffered from a drier climate in 2023. Then came a period with excessive rain for the country, which contributed to the proliferation of cocoa tree diseases, mainly that of swollen sprouts and, now , El Niño, which imposes a drier and hotter climate for the western region of Africa”, he stated.

The Itaú BBA analyst also mentions another climatic factor that harms the production of West African countries: the movement of dry and cold winds that act with strong intensity this season, causing the delivery of cocoa from African countries to be much lower than recorded. in previous years.

“Since the start of the season – in October 2023 until January 2024 –, deliveries from Ivory Coast were 34% below the same period in 2022 and 2023. In Ghana, the drop was 35%, according to ICCO (Organization Cocoa International). The expectation is of a new deficit for the global cocoa balance in this year’s harvest, the 3rd in a row. ICCO projects 374 thousand tons, while some sources estimate up to 500 thousand”highlights the expert.

In Brazil, data from Ceplac (Executive Committee of the Cocoa Farming Plan) indicates production of 220 thousand tons of almonds in 2022, and the 2023 harvest should be completed with 265 thousand tons produced.

“In 2023, Pará overtook Bahia, historically leader in the national ranking of cocoa production. In Brazil, the south of Bahia has also suffered from the effects of El Niño, which should result in a reduction in production, given the impact of the unfavorable climate”adds Queiroz.

In this harvest, world production of commodity it should total 4.45 million tons, also according to ICCO. This represents an 11% drop on previous production, while demand is expected to reduce 5% to 4.75 million tons.

The agricultural specialist’s expectation is that the increase in cocoa prices will lead to a decrease in global demand, after 3 consecutive years of increases. Even so, there must be the 3rd consecutive deficit in the global market, reaching 374 thousand tons, according to the reference entity in the sector.

According to Alexandre Maluf, economist at XP Investimentos, the rise in the final prices of products such as chocolate milk, chocolate bars and bonbons is strongly influenced by the variation in commoditywhich suffered from crop failure in several producing countries, mainly in Africa, but sugar also boosted prices, given the “crop failure in the United States with global repercussions on the production chain”concludes Maluf.

High cocoa prices inflate prices

The price of cocoa futures in New York with a contract for May 2024 reached US$ 9,650 (R$ 47,999) on Monday afternoon (25 March 2024). 1 year ago, it cost around US$2,900 (R$14,424).

For futures traded in London, also due in May, the price reaches £8,226 (R$51,743), while last year, at the same time, it was below £2,200 (R$13,838).

Chocolate prices in the capital of São Paulo

Products are smaller and more expensive in the city of São Paulo. Research by Procon in São Paulo with prices of products related to the commemorative date showed a difference of up to 159.08% for the same product: the 150g Arcor Bon Bon Strawberry Easter egg, which cost R$ 69.90 on a website and R$ 26.98 in another.

The entity’s research aims to help consumers base their purchasing decisions on items such as Easter eggs, chocolates, boxes and chocolate bars. The study was carried out by collecting prices of 115 items in 8 establishments, online, between March 11th and 13th.

Prices are freely set and increases cannot be considered abusive, according to the director of studies and research at Procon-SP, Deise Garcia. “We cannot characterize this type of situation as an abusive price, because with free trade, the establishment can set the price that suits them”he highlights.

Procon also compared 90 items between online surveys from 2024 and 2023 in the capital of São Paulo – the result showed an increase in the average price of 8.76% for the kilo of sweets, 8.30% for the kilo of tablets, but a drop of 15. 52% per kilo of eggs.

For comparison, the IPC-SP (Consumer Price Index) from Fipe (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas), referring to the period from March 2023 to February 2024, registered a variation of 3%. According to Procon, the average value per kilo of Easter eggs is R$302.21, while that of chocolates is R$164.14 and chocolate tablets are R$86.27.

Care when going shopping

Consumers should carry out price research online and in person before going shopping, according to the Procon representative, and also consider shipping prices. “Often, the consumer chose a certain website to finalize this purchase, but when calculating it along with shipping, the value ends up being higher than in other establishments, so it is necessary to consider the product precisely with the shipping cost for the total purchase ”advises Garcia.

Furthermore, the customer must be aware of very advantageous values, so as not to fall for scams. In the rush to buy cheaper, consumers can end up in a trap. “We suggest that consumers choose websites that have a physical address, telephone number and CNPJ. Furthermore, we recommend being wary of very cheap offers, as the consumer may or may not receive the product or receive something that is not what they would like”, states.

Therefore, Procon provides a list of portals on its website that are not recommended by the entity.

With information from Investing Brazil.