Good morning and last trading session of March, exchange rate group! And yesterday the cash price closed the day at R$4.9805 for sale, according to Getmoney operators. The market operated on margins that were even narrow for pre-Ptax. Despite tomorrow’s holiday, the PCE will be released on Friday, which is an important index and well taken into account by the Fed when deciding on the path of monetary policy. This index could change projections about the start of the monetary relief cycle in the US.
But today, yes, is Ptax day at the end of the month. And we will see the dispute between long and short until 1:00 pm (Brasília time), when normally (I say normally because I’ve seen the Central Bank delay this a lot) Ptax comes out. The point is that without impactful news, the dispute between longs and shorts may not be as fierce as it normally is on Ptax days.
And in the political scenario, even the Minister of Finance, Fernanado Haddad, admitted in an interview on Tuesday, released yesterday, the possibility of the 2025 surplus target not being achieved (of 0.5% GDP), as foreseen in the new tax framework. He said that the goal is linked to some points, including payroll tax relief! It’s every one! He also said that he intends to send the tax reform regulation proposal by mid-April.
For today, in addition to Ptax, we have a fuller agenda here in Brazil and with indicators also in the USA. And let’s move on to the economic calendar for today. Here in Brazil we will follow the quarterly inflation report, the unemployment rate, the National Monetary Council (CMN) meeting, the foreign exchange flow and the Ptax at the end of the month and quarter. In the US, we will look at last year’s fourth quarter GDP, unemployment claims, Chicago PMI for March, inflation expectations and Michigan’s March consumer sentiment and confidence index, and the Fed’s balance sheet .
Good business everyone, lots of profit, have a good holiday and happy Easter!
