Dollar is around R$5.00 with GDP and more data from the United States

Close to R$5.00, the dollar spot captures the appreciation of Treasuries pending US GDP this Thursday (28).

Meanwhile, the American dollar awaits the US PCE inflation data for February, on Friday, as well as a speech by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

United States economy this week

O dollar in exchange It also has a technical component amid the formation of the last Ptax rate for March and the first quarter, brought forward to today because of the Good Friday holiday in Brazil, the United States and Europe.

At the end of Wednesday, the director of Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller stated that he is not ready or has any urgency to start cutting interest rates, and that he wants to see at least two more months of data to assess whether the time has come.

This Thursday, data from the United States showed that, in the third reading, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter – a slightly stronger pace than expected, of 3.3%. Furthermore, the number of requests for unemployment benefit it had a slight drop of 2 thousand in the week ending March 23, to 210 thousand. The forecast was 215 thousand requests.

Commodities and Brazil

Among commodities, the signals are mixed. O Petroleum advanced around 1.5% at around 9:30 am, while the iron ore fell 0.85% in Dalian, China, expanding losses accumulated in three consecutive sessions to 9.96%.

At the opening of business, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that the unemployment rate in Brazil was 7.8% in the quarter ended in February, according to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad To be continued). The result was identical to the median of analysts’ expectations.

In the same period of 2023, the unemployment rate measured by Pnad Contínua was 8.6%. In the quarter ending in January 2024, the unemployment rate was 7.6%.

The average real income of workers totaled R$3,110 in the quarter ended in February, an annual increase of 4.3%, and the usual real income paid to employed people totaled R$307.3 billion in the quarter up to February, an annual increase of 6 .7%.

Earlier, the central bank reported, in the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI), that the forecast for the IPCA – the official inflation index – for March is an increase of 0.24%.

The projection for April is an increase of 0.35% and, for May, an increase of 0.27%. The estimate for June is an increase of 0.15%.

According to the BC, maintaining the projections of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) for the IPCA – official inflation index – for 2024 and 2025 occurred because the upward surprises in the latest readings of the indicator were offset by lower projections for the short term.

O oil price also contributed upwards, according to the BC. The BC’s official estimates were maintained at 3.5% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025, both above the center of the target of 3.0%.

In relation to recent readings, the BC stated that there was a surprise increase of 0.54 percentage points in the IPCA in the quarter ending in February, which was mainly due to administered prices and food at home. In those monitored, the highlight was gasoline, while the foods that rose more than expected were fresh foods, rice and beans and milk and dairy products.

As for services, the monetary authority highlighted that the variation was close to expected, but with relevant differences in composition. There was an upward surprise in the underlying component, a source of concern for the BC regarding monetary policy. According to the municipality, the surprise was only partially explained by the stronger variation in the banking services sub-item.