Cepea, 03/28/2024 – The price of milk collected in February registered the fourth consecutive monthly increase, of 3.8%, and reached R$ 2.2347/liter in the “Brazilian Average” from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/ USP. Even with the increase, the average was still 21.6% below that recorded in February/23, in real terms (the values were deflated by the IPCA of February/24).
The upward movement in the field, which began in November 2023, is due to lower production in the field and the intensification of the dispute between dairy products and cooperatives for suppliers. Cepea’s Milk Capture Index (ICAP-L) fell 3.35% from January to February, accumulating a drop of 5.2% in the first two months of this year. In turn, the drop in supply is explained by the climate (drought and heat), but, above all, by the squeezed margins of livestock farmers in recent months, which led to a reduction in investments within the gate.
The expectation of market agents is that raw milk prices will continue to rise in the coming months. However, this movement may be limited by consumption and imports. Agents consulted by Cepea report that the consumption of derivatives at the end of the chain remained unstable in February, showing great sensitivity to rising prices. In this sense, dairy companies have had difficulties in passing on the appreciation of raw materials in negotiations with distribution channels. At the same time, dairy imports, even though they have fallen in the last two months, continue to add significant volumes, putting pressure on prices in the domestic market.
Graphic 1. Series of average prices received by the producer (net), in real values (deflated by the IPCA of February/2024)
PRESS OFFICE: Further information about the dairy market here, through Cepea Communication and with researcher Natália Grigol: [email protected].
Authorship: Natalia Grigol
Tags: MILKCEPEA Producer prices increase fourth consecutive month Center Advanced Studies Applied Economics
