Dollar Closing, Influences and Projections

The foreign exchange market ended the last day of March with the spot dollar being traded at R$5.0154 for sale, as disclosed by the Getmoney brokerage desk. In the first quarter, the dollar accumulated an appreciation of 3.34%. The end of last month was marked by a climate of risk aversion and volatility.

Ptax Rate Dispute and Fed Comments

The dispute surrounding the closing of the last Ptax rate of the month led the dollar to surpass the R$5.00 mark. Furthermore, comments from Christopher Waller, director of the Fed, about the lack of rush to cut interest rates in the US at this time, boosted the exchange rate.

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Dollar Strengthening Globally

The strengthening of the dollar globally can be attributed to speculation about the timing of the first US interest rate cut and the magnitude of monetary relief expected this year. While last year forecasts indicated an interest rate cut of 1.5% in 2024, starting in March, now the market is already projecting a maximum of 0.75%, starting in June. The higher interest rates in the US, the stronger the dollar becomes.

Powell’s Comments and Expectations for the Week

On Friday, with markets closed for the Good Friday holiday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declared that he does not consider it appropriate to cut interest rates until there is confidence that US inflation is on a downward path. sustained. He suggested that it is possible to wait a little longer before starting to cut interest rates, to avoid a sudden increase in inflation.

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Weekly Agenda and Future Perspectives

On this week’s agenda, data from the US labor market will be highlighted and should influence the foreign exchange market. In today’s economic calendar, the Focus Bulletin and the industrial and global PMIs for March are scheduled here in Brazil. In the US, construction spending for February and the industrial PMI for March will be released. It is worth mentioning that several countries are on Easter holidays today.