Dollar rises with post US PCE and Powell adjustments; check out

O dollar rises this Monday morning (1), renewing the maximum in the spot market, after a low opening responding to a slight profit taking following a gain of 0.86% in March and 3.34% in the first quarter of the year. year.

The foreign exchange market adjusts to the strengthening of the dollar and intermediate and long Treasury yields after the release of the US PCE inflation in February and the speech by the president of Federal Reserve (Fedthe North American central bank), Jerome Powell, during the holiday Friday in the United States and Brazil.

Investors are also looking forward to the American and Brazilian industrial PMIs in March.

Exporters may have sold the dollar in the first deals, stimulated by the 2.61% increase in the iron ore in Dalian this Monday and data on industrial PMIs in China in March above expectations. On the global radar this week is the US jobs report in March, the payrollon Friday (5).

Last Friday, the US PCE it increased 0.3% in February compared to January, below the forecast of an increase of 0.4%, and the core, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.3% in the same period, in line with the projection. In the annual comparison, the PCE increased 2.5% in February, compared to 2.4% in January, and the core rose 2.8%, compared to a revised 2.9%. The data raises hopes that the Fed should start reducing interest rates from June.

Powell stated that the definition of the moment for interest cuts will depend exclusively on data and the performance of the economy, and not on political calendars, warning that the Fed may even extend the period of maintenance of the restrictive policy, if there is no progress in the reduction of inflation.

In China, the country’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in March, pointing to the first expansion in manufacturing after five months of contraction, while the S&P Global/Caixin reading rose to 51.1 last month, reaching an all-time high. since February 2023.

In Brazil, in the next few days, the Focus newsletter, on Tuesday; industrial production for February and IPC-Fipe for March, on Wednesday; the exchange rate flow, the trade balance in March, the current account balance and the IDP for February, on Thursday; the IGP-DI for April and the consolidated public sector data for February, on Friday.

Earlier, Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) reported that the Weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC-S) decreased to 0.10% at the end of March, after closing February with a variation of 0.55%. In the third four-week period of March, the increase was 0.22%. As a result, the index accumulates an increase of 2.93% in 12 months. The variation of the IPC-S in the month came at the bottom of the range of Projeções Broadcast estimates.