Soybean prices fell on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Monday (1/4), impacted by the financial environment, given the significant appreciation of the dollar. Contracts for delivery in May closed down 0.48%, trading at US$11.8575 a bushel.
Ênio Fernandes, from Terra Agronegócio, reinforces the weight of the American currency on oilseed prices.
“Brazilian soybeans are the most competitive in the world and the strong dollar makes them even more advantageous for international buyers, resulting in low demand for the American grain”highlights the analyst.
In the early afternoon of this Monday, the dollar was traded at R$5.05, the highest intraday value since October.
Supply projections are another point in favor of falling soybean prices in Chicago. Fernandes recalls that amid expectations that the USA will produce 121.5 million tons in 2024/25 and with the entry of Argentine soybeans into the market, the commodity traded at US$12 per bushel is expensive, according to him.
“We could see soybeans reach between US$ 11 and US$ 10.90 per bushel as soon as the South American crop gains ground among buyers”, he projects.
Finally, the analyst recalls that data on the US job market, which will be released next Friday, could change the direction of prices.
“The US employment number is crucial as it will give signals of how long it will take the Fed [banco central americano] change interest rates. If the job market continues to be strong, we have an indication of a strong economy, which could negatively affect grains in Chicago.”
