The dollar registered a significant increase, reaching a peak of R$5.07 during negotiations, and closing the day at R$5.059. This movement marked the highest exchange rate for the American currency since October last year, in a context marked by the strengthening of economic indicators in the United States.
The most recent data that drove this appreciation came from the American industrial purchasing managers index (PMI), which, contrary to expectations, advanced from 47.8 in February to 50.1 points in March, surpassing the 50-point threshold that separates the contraction of the expansion of industrial activity.
This result points to a more resilient economy than expected, increasing speculation about a possible delay in the interest rate reduction cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the American central bank.
The market’s response to this expectation of a more restrictive monetary policy in the US was immediate, strengthening the dollar globally and affecting emerging economies, including Brazil.
With the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States, investors tend to reallocate investments to the country, reducing the flow of capital to markets considered more risky, such as Brazil, which contributes to the appreciation of the American currency against the real.
Faced with this scenario, the Central Bank of Brazil announced an intervention in the foreign exchange market, scheduling an additional auction of up to 20,000 foreign exchange swap contracts, equivalent to the sale of dollars on the futures market, totaling US$1 billion.
This action aims to provide liquidity and stability to the foreign exchange market.
The context of economic uncertainty is not limited to American monetary policy alone. Gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven by investors, reached a new all-time high, surpassing US$2,265 per ounce, reflecting growing demand for the metal by central banks in a global environment of geopolitical and economic tensions.
The intense purchase of gold by institutions such as the central banks of Turkey, China and India signals a search for diversification and security in times of instability.
These movements in the foreign exchange market and the gold market illustrate the complexity of current global dynamics, directly influencing the Brazilian economy and the Central Bank’s strategies to maintain the country’s financial stability.
