The commercial dollar closed stable, quoted at 5.05 reais this Tuesday, 2nd. The currency varied slightly downwards, with a reduction of 0.02% compared to last Monday. The trading session was influenced by the Central Bank’s exchange rate swap auction, the first since the end of 2022. The Ibovespa closed up 0.4%, at 127.5 thousand points, recovering losses from the day before.
At the beginning of the session, the American currency fell to 5.02 reais, but approached the previous day’s price throughout the day.
This Tuesday, the BC announced up to 1 billion dollars in currency swap contracts in the session. The practice has an effect equivalent to selling dollars on the futures market and does not involve the country’s foreign currency reserves. In March, the American currency appreciated 0.86% against the real. Last Monday, the increase was 1%.
With strong data from the American economy and a bet on stability in the United States interest rate at least until June, the dollar is gaining strength in relation to other currencies, especially emerging ones. This happens because investors prefer to put their money in US government bonds, Treasuries, considered the safest investment in the world. The rise in the American currency is also related to the approaching maturity of bonds linked to the dollar here (NTN-A), on April 15th.
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The stability of the exchange rate here was at odds with the behavior of the dollar abroad, which lost ground to its peers and also to emerging currencies, in the wake of the appreciation of commodities. At the end of the afternoon, the dollar fell 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.9% against the Chilean peso and 0.8% against the Colombian peso.
Hot economy
This Tuesday. the market reflected new data from the USA. Industrial orders rose 1.4% in February, while the number of available jobs, measured by the Jolts report, was almost stable. This week, monthly labor market data, from the payroll report, are also expected. For now, the market sees a 62% chance that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US Central Bank) will cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in June, according to the FedWatch tool. For the May meeting, the expectation is stability.
