Stock exchange closes slightly and dollar retreats, after Powell’s statements

São Paulo- The Stock Exchange closed with a slight drop with commodities weighing heavily, but the speeches by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell, provided relief and helped to improve investors’ mood by stating that the interest rate cut is relevant this year.

Before Powell, the Ibovespa fell by more than 1%, however it managed to defend the region of 126 thousand points. The interday minimum reached 126,181.37 points and the maximum 127,693.56 points.

Vale shares (VALE3) fell 1.43%. Petrobras (PETR3 and PETR4) closed down 0.78% and 0.51%. On the positive side, Bradesco (BBDC3 and BBDC4) rose 2.29% and 1.97% and 3RPetrtoleum (RRRP3) advanced 3.77%.

The main B3 index fell 0.18%, to 127,318.39 points. The Ibovespa future due in April fell 0.01%, to 127,740 points. The financial volume was R$21.8 billion. In New York, the stock markets closed mixed

Bruna Sene, analyst at Nova Futura Investimentos, said that the Fed president’s statements help improve the Ibovespa.

“With Powell’s speech [Jerome Powell] The market improved, the 10-year tresauries stabilized – they went from 4.42% to 4.35% – and bets for a cut in June increased. Another factor that helped was that the ISM index slowed down in March [caiu a 51,4 pontos, abaixo do esperado de 52,7 pontos e melhor que registrado em fevereiro (52,6 pts)]; Vale, despite having improved the fall, still weighs on the index and cyclical stocks suffer from the rise in DIs. The positive point is that Bradesco is moving forward, it could be a sectoral rotation with the market looking for discounted shares; In the oil sector there is also rotation with investors prioritizing private oil companies, such as 3RPetroleum, which rises in response to the proposed merger with Enauta. It is important to highlight that Ibovespa managed to hold on to 126 thousand points”.

Bruno Komura, analyst at Potenza Investimentos, said that the market is focused abroad.

“The issue of interest rates in the US is pricing treasuries upwards [rendimento dos títulos do Tesouro de 10 anos está 4,41%]. American data shows that the economy there is booming. ADP came in strong, especially with regard to salaries. The services PMI, despite being weaker, is still strong. This bad mood should continue in the market until Friday when the payroll will be released on Friday (5)”.

Earlier, Ubirajara Silva, independent variable income manager, said that the market is keeping an eye abroad.

“Oil rises and ore falls, which may reflect on our Stock Exchange due to the strong weight of commodities in the index. The ADP labor market data came out, which came out better than expected and this ends up being bad for the market. Investors will follow Powell’s speech to see what line he will adopt, whether he will make any signals about interest rates.”

The commercial dollar closed down 0.38%, quoted at R$5.0398. The currency reflected, in the afternoon, the speeches of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell, which calmed the market, in addition to the ISM Services index which fell to 51.4 points in March compared to projections of 52.7 points.

“Recent data has not yet materially modified the general outlook, which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving towards 2% on a sometimes bumpy path,” said the president. from the Fed.

For Banco Bmg’s chief economist, Flávio Serrano, the ISM below projections and Powell’s dovish speech were important for the US currency to lose strength.

Rates on Interbank Deposit (DI) futures contracts closed slightly higher, reflecting the improvement in treasuries, following statements by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell, about interest rates.

At around 4:27 pm (Brasília time), the DI for January 2025 had a rate of 9.960%, from 9.945% in the previous adjustment; the DI for January 2026 projected a rate of 9.975% and 9.975%, the DI for January 2027 was 10.275%, 10.270%, and the DI for January 2028 with a rate of 10.605% and 10.590% in the same comparison. In the foreign exchange market, the commercial dollar was falling, quoted at R$5,057,000 for sale.

The main stock indices in the United States market closed the session in a mixed field, practically sidelined compared to the previous session, while Wall Street was dragged down by negative returns in Intel and Disney shares, which weighed on the Dow Jones .

Check below the variation and score of the United States stock indices after closing:

Dow Jones: -0.28%, 39,059.85 points
Nasdaq 100: +0.01%, 16,242.0 points
S&P 500: -0.05%, 5,202.79 points

With Paulo Holland and Darlan de Azevedo / CMA Agency