In the first three months of the year, house sales prices increased by 2.2% compared to the previous quarter, a value that represents an acceleration compared to the 1.6% recorded in the 4th quarter of 2023. The data comes from the Residential Price Index , investigated by Confidencial Imobiliário.
«Without prejudice to the fact that this is a much lower quarterly variation than that shown a year earlier», the databank states that in the 1st quarter of 2023 (+4.3%) the indicator now reached signals a reversal of the smoothing pattern of price increases felt over the last yearwhich, if confirmed, contradicts the prevailing market expectations.
Year-on-year appreciation once again reduced its pace
In any case, reflecting the accumulated behavior of prices over the last year, year-on-year appreciation reduced its pace again, reaching 9.6% in March 2024. This indicator is 7.6 percentage points below the year-on-year rate of change of 17.2% recorded in the 1st quarter of last year.
“Interest rates are expected to start falling in the coming months, and this is improving buyer confidence”
«In the last three months, the index reversed its short-term trajectory, reaching a quarterly variation of +2.2%, after having this indicator at 1.6% in December. These numbers confirm the latest results from the Portuguese Housing Market Survey, reflecting a more positive behavior in demand and bringing sales expectations to positive territory. Interest rates are expected to start falling in the coming months, and this is improving buyer confidence, which ultimately puts additional pressure on prices», explains Ricardo Guimarães, director of Confidencial Imobiliário.
According to projections made based on sales reported to the SIR-Residential Information Systemin the 1st quarter of this year around 34,300 homes in mainland Portugal. This one volume exceeds by around 5% the average of 32,800 sales per quarter recorded in 2023, confirming the slow but consistent recovery path of activity that has been felt since the second half of last year.
In terms of prices, residential sales in the Continental territory were made for an average value of 2,447 euros/m² in the 1st quarter of this year, standing at 3,413 euros/m² for new housing and 2,326/m² for used housing.
