According to the most recent forecasts by several economists, the Portuguese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will have grown between 1% and 2.1%, year-on-year, in the first quarter, after having registered an expansion of 2.1% in year-on-year terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.
The Forum for Competitiveness estimates that the Portuguese economy grew between 1% and 1.3% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last year and between 0.3% and 0.6% overall, according to the economic note released in April.
For its part, the CIP/ISEG Barometer estimates year-on-year GDP growth of between 1.7% and 2.1% in the first quarter, and 1.1% to 1.5% in the next quarter, due to the growth in production in industry, construction and services.
NECEP – Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab predicts a GDP expansion of 1.2% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2023 and 0.5% quarter on year.
The Portuguese economy grew 2.3% in the whole of 2023, with the contribution of domestic demand, although at a lower level than in 2022, with there being a slowdown in private consumption and investment last year, according to data from INE.
In the 2024-2028 Stability Program, sent by the Government to parliament, the Ministry of Finance predicts (in a scenario of invariant policies) a growth of 1.5% in the Portuguese economy this year, in line with what is projected in the State Budget for 2024 and a tenth below the macroeconomic forecasts of the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the electoral program.
AAT // CSJ
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