São Paulo -The Stock Exchange closed higher in the first session of May after the holiday, managing to remain in the region of 127 thousand points due to the softer speech by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell , On the eve.
The monetary authority brought relief to the market by stating that raising interest rates is “unlikely”. The shares of companies linked to the domestic economy were a positive highlight and the blue chips – Vale and Itaú – rose.
CVC (CVCB3) led the rise by 12.46%. Pão de Açúcar (PCAR3) advanced 8.53% and Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) registered a gain of 7.35%. The Small Caps Index soared 1.69%.
The main B3 index rose 0.95%, to 127,122.25 points. The Ibovespa future due in June advanced 0.87%, to 128,425 points. The financial turnover was R$24 billion. In New York, the stock markets closed positive.
Alexsandro Nishimura, economist and partner at Nomos, said that the return of the holiday “reflected an improvement in investors’ risk appetite given the combination of a lighter speech from the Fed and the improvement in the outlook for Brazil’s credit rating by Moody’s. The rise was quite widespread in Ibovespa shares, driven by the appreciation of blue chips, such as Vale, Petrobras and banks, with the exception of Bradesco”.
Nishimura stated that “the improvement in the scenario was reflected in the fall in future interest rates and the dollar, combined with upward revisions in the Brazilian GDP growth prospects, helped the appreciation of retail shares”.
Anderson Silva, head of variable income and partner at GT Capital, said that “with the maintenance of interest rates by the States and a season of balance sheets gaining strength – with results slightly below expectations, some within expectations or others even above, we see the stock market visiting the 127 thousand points house again. Greater control over our inflation also helps future interest curves.”
Larissa Quaresma, an analyst at Empiricus Research, said that the market’s better mood today reflects statements by Fed President Jerome Powell yesterday.
“The speech was tougher than the previous ones, but less than the market expected. The unlikely word he used to refer to the rise in interest rates went down well. Another point is that he started to worry about the job market. Previously he said he was balancing and now he has balanced. We see [mercado de trabalho] cooling down. Jotls data [divulgados na véspera] showed a drop in job openings in March from US$8.813 million to US$8.488 million in February. The Fed is seeing an opportunity to cut interest rates in September. Small Caps [Indice Small Caps]which is correlated with interest rates rising a lot”.
Larissa said that the Brazilian market will continue to depend on the external scenario on a daily basis to take direction.
The Empiricus Research analyst also commented that the market is keeping an eye on the balance sheets and that there is a good outlook for results in 1Q24, with the exception of metal commodities.
“We have Copom next week with a forecast of a cut of 0.25 percentage points (pp). But in the next two weeks the market may look again at the micro. Today we had Bradesco, which surpassed the market estimate, but the spread fell, for example. For Itaú we have a positive outlook.”
Ubirajara Silva, independent variable income manager, said that the Stock Exchange was reflecting the Fed’s less strong tone yesterday when the market was closed here.
“The Fed maintained the signals from previous meetings, but was less tough than the market expected. The market’s perspective was that interest rates would start to fall in November, but with Powell’s statement yesterday [Jerome Powell, presidente do Fed], this expectation came to September. The market also liked it because they [dos dirigentes do Fed] They will analyze the current situation at each meeting and this ends up bringing more emphasis to economic data. Tomorrow’s payroll (3) gains great relevance, a weakening of the labor market could help in cutting interest rates. Today there is a more intensified rally, after Tuesday they maintained [os investidores] caution and the market bought the dollar, took interest and sold the stock.”
In relation to the balance sheets, Bradesco had a weaker result than the market expected – very low ROE. After the results of Bradesco and Santander, the market can predict Itaú’s performance [6]which rises 0.82% today.
The commercial dollar closed down 1.52%, quoted at R$5.1126 on a day of global optimism following yesterday’s statements by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell.
He stated that there is no likelihood of a rise in interest rates and the market expects at least one cut this year. The prospect of raising Brazil’s credit rating by the risk rating agency Moody’s contributed to the good mood in today’s session.
For the member of Pronto! Invest Vanei Nagem, the speech by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), Jerome Powell, was not harsh, giving hope that at least one cut will occur this year: “The mood is optimistic” .
Nagem also noted that Moody’s decision also contributed to the good performance of the Brazilian currency in the first session of May: “This ‘positive’ means that the agency is evaluating the rating increase, and this encouraged the markets today”.
The rates on future contracts for Interbank Deposits (DIs) close with a firm drop, reflecting the maintenance of the United States interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. Here, the risk rating agency Moody’s revised upwards the perspective of Brazil’s credit rating: despite maintaining the level (rating) as Ba2, it changed the perspective of the assessment from “stable” to “positive”, signaling that it could raise this rating in the future.
At around 4:35 pm (Brasília time), the DI for January 2025 had a rate of 10.205%, from 10.440% in the previous adjustment; the DI for January 2026 projected a rate of 10.445% from 10.395%, the DI for January 2027 was 10.775%, from 10.765%, and the DI for January 2028 with a rate of 11.080 from 11.085% in the same comparison.
The main indices of the United States stock market closed the session on a positive note, in a lull following the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank), with investors putting aside concerns about interest rates for now to consider focus on Apple’s results and tomorrow’s payroll.
Check below the variation and score of the United States stock indices after closing:
Dow Jones: +0.85%, 38,225.66 points
Nasdaq 100: +1.51%, 15,840.96 points
S&P 500: +0.91%, 5,064.20 points
With Paulo Holland, and Camila Brunelli and Darlan de Azevedo / Safras News Agency
Tags: Stock exchange closes higher dollar falls influence North American central bank
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