Low cost airlines are expected to reach a 48% share of short-haul flights by 2030, with a large part of this expansion occurring in Europe and Asia, according to an analysis by Bain & Company.
In a statement, in which it explained its forecasts, at the beginning of this year, the consultancy said that ‘low cost’ airlines, which recorded “a slightly better performance than large carriers during the covid-19 pandemic, continue to increase its market share”.
“We expect these low-cost airlines to reach a market share of 48% in short-haul flights by 2030, up from 36% in 2015 and 40% in 2019”, he highlighted, indicating that “a large part of this expansion will take place in Europe and in Asia, particularly in China and India.”
According to the consultancy, “demand for air travel remains on track to surpass the 2019 total this year, measured by passenger revenue/kilometers”, and “the prospects for 2030 remain relatively unchanged compared to the previous quarter”.
However, he noted, “several factors contributed to significant changes in forecasts for specific regions and countries.”
Thus, “weaker than expected performance in the previous quarter and a drop in macroeconomic forecasts reduced the demand outlook until 2030 for intraregional travel in North America by more than two percentage points (pp)”.
“Europe’s intra-regional demand prospects increased by more than five pp, equivalent to 5 billion dollars [4,6 mil milhões de euros] in revenue”, he highlighted.
For the consultant, “the impact of decarbonization initiatives is also notable”, predicting that “the growth in intra-European travel from the Nordic countries between 2019 and 2030 will decrease considerably due to the increase in costs associated with these countries’ commitments regarding fuel for sustainable aviation”.
In its analysis, Bain & Company says that Sweden “could even see a decline in total annual passenger volume”.
On the contrary, the consultancy continues “to anticipate significant growth in intra-regional demand in Asia, an increase of 59% between 2019 and 2030”.
