Weather on Monday, April 29, 2024

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O The weather on Monday, April 29th, will be marked by the temporary return of the anticyclonic influence, meaning the weather will be more stable… However, it is important to note that this is just a transition, so at the end of the day a new front approaches

That’s how it’s expected dry weather for most of the day, calm, with a cold night and a slightly milder day, without much wind, but at the end of the day we will notice a new change, and the probability of rain increases again, especially on the North and Center coast

As mentioned Minimum temperatures will be lower, and with slightly cloudy skies expected in the morning, we expect frost in many places – on the other hand, the afternoon will see a rise in temperature between 3 and 5ºC

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We also hope that the sea is much calmer, with waves that do not exceed 1m, in general

Us Azores we expect a very calm day, with the influence of the anticyclone, practically no wind, and calm sea

In Madeira we expect a calm day, with little wind, but some humidity, and some occasional light precipitation

We can see in the MetOffice forecast chart the approaching fronts, with the temporary anticyclone allowing dry weather, but not resisting for long – by the end of the afternoon it is already raining again, as mentioned!

WEATHER FORECAST ON MONDAY, ON THE CONTINENT

SUMMARY: The sky is generally slightly cloudy, and the cloudiness is expected to gradually increase throughout the day, and towards the middle of the afternoon, gradually, the sky should begin to become very cloudy from the coast to the interior – and with precipitation to arrive, again, on the North and Central coast at the end of the day. Cold night, possible frosts. Mild and calm afternoon

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Lightly cloudy sky, gradually increasing in cloudiness, presenting periods of greater cloudiness in general in the afternoon. By mid-afternoon, cloud cover gradually increases from the coast to the interior and the sky can become very cloudy or overcast.
Showers or periods of light rain in the North and Center, especially on the coast from the end of the afternoon
To the Minimum temperatures are expected to drop 1 to 2ºC, with a risk of ice and frost in some parts of the North and Central Interior
The temperatures Maximum temperatures can rise between 2 to 3ºC
It will therefore be a day with temperature values maximum temperature of around 12 to 17ºC in the majority of the territory, with lower values appearing in the Northern and Central Interior, with values in general between 10 and 13ºC – and in some places in the usually hottest spots in the southern region of the country, expect temperatures around 21 to 23ºC
The lows will be around 3 to 8ºC in most of the territory, to be expected lower values in the NorthCenter, in the Interior, in particular, (2-4ºC), as well as negative values in more sheltered points, and slightly higher on the coast and Algarve (13-16ºC)
We predict generally weak wind, in the early morning and morning, being moderate, from the Northwest, between 2030km/h, and with occasionally intense gusts of up to 45km/h in the coastal strip and highlands
A Sea water temperatures remain at around 15ºC on the North West Coast, and 15-16ºC on the rest of the West Coast
At the Algarve the sea will have a temperature of around 17ºC
Sea with waves between 2 and 3m across the West Coast
On the South Coast of the Algarve we will have waves up to 1-1.5m
UV radiation: 5-7 (High)

To illustrate this prediction we leave the temperature forecast using the ARPEGE model – a very cool day, as we can see, with a cold night and risk of frost, and a cool afternoon, despite the rise in maximum temperatures. We can also see the precipitation predicted for this day by the ECMWF model (hourly forecast) where we see the probability of some light showers starting in the late afternoon in some regions

Please note that the forecast may differ from reality, it only serves to give an indication from numerical forecast models.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (ARPEGE)

FORECAST PRECIPITATION (ECMWF)

ECMWF Precipitation

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WEATHER FORECAST ON MONDAY, IN THE AZORES

Summary: This Monday, In the Azores, we expect sun, just some occasional clouds, and no rain. Wind generally weak, with the influence of the anticyclone over the archipelago. Mild and very calm weather

Generally slightly cloudy skies, with some occasional cloudiness, but with plenty of sun throughout the archipelago
In principle, no significant precipitation should occur
Temperatures will rise slightly compared to the previous day, between 1 and 2ºC
Generally weak wind10 to 20km/h, from Northwest
We predict temperatures between 13ºC to 15C (minimum), It is 17 to 20ºC (maximum), a mild and relatively pleasant day
Calm sea, with waves generally up to 12m on all islands
Sea water around 17ºC temperature
UV radiation: 7-8 (High to very high)

To this day we can see, by the ECMWF model the pressure and geopotential forecast, where we see the anticyclone centered over the Azores archipelago, guaranteeing stability and very calm weather

PRESSURE AND GEOPOTENTIAL – ECMWF, SECOND

Weather on Monday, April 29, 2024 - The weather changes, but there are more fronts on the way...

WEATHER FORECAST ON MONDAY, IN MADEIRA

Summary: We expect another day for this Monday with some humidity in the Madeira, with a flow from the North, similar to the previous day, with more clouds on the North slopes and mountainous areas and more open on the South slopes – and some light precipitation – temperatures without much change – another wet day in the archipelago

Generally cloudy skies (possibility of open weather on south-facing slopes)
Light showers or periods of rain on the northern slopes and mountainous areas of Madeira Island
Wind generally weak to moderate, between 10 and 20km/h, from the Northwest, and in exposed areas (mountainous areas) there may be gusts of up to 3040km/h, gradually decreasing in intensity from the afternoon onwards
We expect maximum temperatures of up to 20 or 21ºC and minimum temperatures between 15 and 18ºC
UV radiation: 78 (High to very high)
Sea with waves up to 1 to 1.5m overall
Sea water at around 21ºC of temperature

A wetter day, with precipitation, clouds in some points more exposed to the slightly wetter flow of the Northwest quadrantwith more open areas on the southern slopes, and in the following days with the expected evolution There may possibly continue to be some humidity, but always with little rain – continue to follow our daily forecasts HERE

We can see in the letter below, by the ECMWF model the evolution of precipitation hour by hour according to this model’s forecast

Weather on Monday, April 29, 2024 - The weather changes, but there are more fronts on the way...

NEXT DAYS – WHAT TO EXPECT?

The early summer is over and now we have a delayed winter? Yes, it’s a little like that! – temperatures are low, and are expected to remain so in the coming days, and with precipitation at least until May 3-4, perhaps with one or two days of interruption

You can see this Full forecast available on our website by CLICKING HERE

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Both highs and lows should be closer to winter normalsand therefore snow may appear occasionally at altitudes of around 1000 to 1400m at the end of April and beginning of May – theThe mountains will turn white again, as was the case with Serra da Estrela on Saturday, making it necessary to monitor developments day by day, given the instability in forecasts, to understand at what altitudes it could snow each day

At the beginning of May, stability should gradually returnbut in the period Until May 3-4, we will continue to feel the weather reminding us a little more of Winter, with instability, cool weather, showers, possible thunderstorms and possibly snowfall. Maybe it will be more stable later, but there is still no high confidence in this scenario

April wasn’t great at all, but it still brought us a surprise – the models were very good at predicting this change, which was driven by the final warming of the stratosphere, and temporarily “threw” us back to temperatures close to normal winter temperatures. Given the consensus, it is now a very likely scenario that will continue for at least 56 days

In the Azores the stable weather may now remain stable for a few days, but it is possible that instability will return at the beginning of May – at the moment it is difficult to predict more than 3/4 days in the Azores, the atmosphere is very dynamic – we will see how it evolves!

In Madeira we expect humid weather, the possibility of some precipitation for a few more days…. This pattern could last as long as the anticyclone does not recover, which is not expected for now.

The heatthis, however, He left and shouldn’t be coming back soon

Continue to follow all our forecasts to always stay up to date with all the changes that arise!

For In May, the outlook is warmer again on the Continent – right at the end of the first week, although still an uncertain prediction! – we’ll see how it evolves!

Warmer but unstable May

FINAL NOTES AND SOURCES USED FOR INFORMATION

UPDATES: For more updates and other predictionsinformation follow the Luso Meteo – Meteorology and Climate page on Facebook HERE

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