The market continued with expectation the movement of exchange operations following the presidential election and the start of days marked by uncertainty and the lack of price references.
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It turns out that during the past week a series of more detailed control operations and denunciations about the functioning of the parallel market were produced, which between the months and the coming months put standby the dollar quotation in the informal plaza. For this reason, during the last few rounds a new gap was created between the information published by the agency Reuters, with a value free dollar of reference around $900, and information systems specialized in finance that valued over $1,000 for sale, all within a framework of minimal concrete operations, put them Few active “cuevas” were inclined towards the purchaseno offer for sale.
This month, we have a result that consecrates the presidential candidate Sergio Massa of Union for the Fatherland as he who leaves with sales in the second electoral round for the 19th of November, the parallel market began to re-accommodate itself after two “virtual holiday” changes and returned only with a free dollar that closed 1,100 pesos, a record over $1,050 reached intraday last October 10th.
Despite volatility, alternative dollars tended to converge more despite the political shake-up. The stock market “counted with settlement” through Cedear (certificates backed by foreign shares) fell at 4 pm to 10.4%, at $944.66 in the meantime, with only 1,110 pesos to be touched until the end of the month. liquid” with Argentine shares (according to ADRs operating on Wall Street) fell by 6.7%, to 946.34 pesos.
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“You never end up ‘freezing’ anything. We had the pizarra blue dollar and the real market blue dollar. Yo I say the dollar blue That’s the pueblo’s dollar. It’s the dollar that people use at the time to have a good fungible that protects them from inflation and makes them feel safe. Ayer, despite everything that has happened, continues to sell 1,050 to 1,100 in the market”, commented the analyst and business advisor Salvador Di Stefano.
“What’s going on is very loco. Among us, what happened in Spain was very marked in our memory, where the other day the majority dollar reached 280 pesos and increased to 350 pesos, so this week it was like paralyzing you. Many times the blue is spoken but operations of all types are paralyzed. He who sold harina stopped selling harina. Nadie sold nothing because a collective imagination was generated that there was going to be a devaluation and an increase in prices. That’s not going to happen”, Di Stefano confided to FM Millennium.
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With Massa’s triumph for almost seven points over the ultraliberal Javier Mileifrom La Libertad Avanza, all dollar futures contracts registered this month violent falls of up to 30% in the Mercado Abierto Electrónico (MAE) and the Matba-Rofex.
The free dollar resumes trading at record prices and with an exchange rate gap of 200 percent
“By not mediating disruptive declarations from the candidates that came to the fore, the changing tensions would have to be implemented in the shortest space, even though again in an economy without any consequences for the program, the generalized lack of coordination could have unexpected effects. It will be twenty days in which the intensity of the imbalances can be rescheduled or starting to be differentiated, with this last scenario being of low probability”, he warned. Martin Calveiraeconomist researcher at the IAE Business School of the Universidad Austral.
Furthermore, amidst declarations from the opposition on the value of the type of official change from the day after the elections, the vice-minister of Economy, Gabriel Rubinsteinhad promised that the mayoral dollar would maintain its value of $350 until November 15, after which a daily adjustment stage would begin at a rate of 3% monthly.
There gap would change between the official dollar and the “blue” surpassed this month at 200 percent, at 214.3%, a maximum in 34 years. This gap has been the biggest since March 31, 1989, when the country was going through hyperinflation. According to data from the Central Bank, that day the gap reached 214.8% between the commercial dollar – for foreign trade operations – at 15.82 australes and a free dollar, at 49.8 australes.
“In the week before the elections, the tension continued at a high level, which was reflected in a new increase in financial dollars and a drop in international reserves, which reached new minimums. Despite the implementation of differential exchange types and the approval of a new section of swap with China, if elections were launched with the gap it would change at record levels”, he indicated Martin PoloCohen’s chief strategist.
On the other hand, hubo was strong in intervening in the stock dollars, to give a technique to these alternative quotations before last Sunday’s elections. Martín Polo highlighted “the strong intervention of the BCRA in financial dollars, which had a cost of USD 500 million last week —more than USD 1,000 million in October-”.
In this sense, one of the decisions that the Government will have to take is how it will continue to act on the types of financial exchange, markets on which you have to intervene forcefully to avoid uncontrolled increases. The MEP dollar only operates at over 900 pesos, while the liquidation count is over 1,000 pesos per unit.
