While there may be five seeds separating the Oregon Ducks and South Carolina Gamecocks in Thursday’s first-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament, the oddsmakers don’t see much difference between these two power conference teams. South Carolina is a small favorite.
Oregon needed to win the Pac-12 Conference tournament to steal a bid into the Big Dance, but now that the Ducks are dancing, they could pull an upset in the first round and then coach Dana Altman could face his former team in the second round .
South Carolina does have a travel advantage here with the Ducks having to travel cross-country to play in Pittsburgh.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Strengths: Pounding the paint is Oregon’s greatest asset. N’Faly Dante simply would not be contained down the homestretch and into the Pac-12 Tournament, which the Ducks needed to win to get into the NCAA Tournament and they did. He enters the NCAA Tournament after a flawless 12-for-12 shooting performance in the championship game against Colorado. Mind-blowing. Over their final seven regular-season contests, Oregon, as a team, made 56.4 percent of its shots inside the arc. Decent on the glass and occasionally effective from 3-point range, Dana Altman’s group has reached their offensive apex at the most opportune time.
Weaknesses: Defensively, the Ducks are more of the rubber variety. Over the final month of the regular season, they ranked a wretched No. 270 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, surrendering a staggering 53.3 percent from two and an equally loathsome 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. The Ducks’ backcourt shot the rock more effectively in the Pac-12 tournament, but in their last eight games they checked in at No. 346 in 3-point percentage offense (27.2). Bottom line, the Ducks are truly kings of inconsistency in myriad ways.
Outlook: Much like the NES classic Duck Hunt, the spiraling Quackers — days before the Pac-12 tourney — were food for snickering dogs. However, a stirring and unforeseen March run allowed them to steal a bid. If Dante, Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad continue to sizzle, the storybook ending could have them laughing last.
—Brad Evans
No. 6 South Carolina
Strengths: Slam-dunk SEC Coach of the Year — and national coach of the year contender — Lamont Paris has brought the gritty, deliberate basketball he absorbed from Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, and produced one of the sport’s surprise teams in his second season. Meechie Johnson sets the tone, an aggressive force on both ends — not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. Freshman big man Collin Murray-Boyles is going to be a pro. The Gamecocks are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency, at around 350 in tempo. They are big and powerful everywhere, starting with 6-foot-8, 270-pound forward BJ Mack.
Weaknesses: When it goes bad for this team, it goes really bad – such as an 86-55 SEC Tournament loss to high-flying Auburn, a team with the speed and athleticism to blow up the way the Gamecocks want to play. But as long as South Carolina keeps things close, it usually finds a way to win. Ta’Lon Cooper and Myles Stute are both efficient 3-point shooters, but everyone else who shoots from long range with any volume is in the high 20s/low 30s in percentage. If an opponent can take Murray-Boyles away without doubling, South Carolina can get stagnant.
Outlook: The last look at this team wasn’t pretty: A 28 percent shooting night with the opponent getting 17 layups or dunks. An athletic opponent who is willing to be that aggressive is a bad matchup, although few, if any, teams in college basketball have as much horsepower as Auburn. If South Carolina plays its brand of basketball, it can get to the second weekend. Johnson is the kind of player who wills teams to win in March.
—Joe Rexrode
How to watch Oregon vs. Oregon south carolina
What: Midwest Region, First Round
Typeoff time: 4 p.m. ET Thursday
TV: TNT
Location: Pittsburgh
Oregon vs. South Carolina odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Model projection: Oregon by 0.5 points, total 135.1
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets
Players to watch
Oregon
- N’Faly Dante, first-team All-Pac-12
south carolina
- Ta’Lon Cooper, second-team All-SEC
- Meechie Johnson, second-team All-SEC
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Ta’Lon Cooper: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
Tags: Oregon South Carolina expert picks Spread odds projections NCAA Tournament game
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